Red Flag Warning 76, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
450 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...

CHILLY TEMPS THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN/INTERIOR SECTIONS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS. RECORD LOW AT DAB
IS 50 SET IN 1977 AND THERE IS A CHANCE THIS COULD BE TIED OR
POSSIBLY EVEN BROKEN THIS MORNING. SLIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT KEEPING
TEMPS ELEVATED ALG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND TO THE
E/NE DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ALOFT SO EXPECT
SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM E/SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MAX
TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY AS WE GRADUALLY LOSE MORE OF THE
NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT. FORECAST ISSUES AND DECISION MAKING THIS
MORNING DEALT PRIMARILY WITH MARINE AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
DETAILED BELOW.

MON-TUE...MAIN AXIS OF AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AND FL PENINSULA MONDAY WILL MOVE OUT OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
TUESDAY...YET LEAVE RELATIVELY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLIDE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE LOCAL GATE
OPEN FOR RETURN FLOW SCENARIO. LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH H850 IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEADY AND ONSHORE...WHILE VEERING SOUTHERLY BY LATER
IN THE PERIOD. GULF MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD TO FUEL THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL SUPPORT SCT POPS FOR
THE NORTH FORECAST AREA TUESDAY SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA LATE TUESDAY AND OVERNIGHT. CURRENT PACKAGE VALUES BELOW
GUIDANCE AND MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IN SUBSEQUENT CYCLES. OF
INTEREST...GFS SHOWS AN INVIGORATED H850 JET OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA...BUT ORIENTED MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND JUST OUT OF REACH.
EVEN SO...THUNDER PRUDENT FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
FORECAST.

WED-SAT...SCT POPS SUPPORTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON
TAP. EXPECT CONCENTRATED SLUG TO BE SHUNTED SOUTH WITH PARTIAL
DRYING THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONT PROGGED FOR FROPA SATURDAY.
MODEST POPS WITH NEXT SYSTEM AND MAX/MINS TENDING BACK TOWARD
CLIMO.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS STARTING TO VEER AND DECREASING A BIT AT BUOY 009
BUT EXPECT ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT (020-040) TO PERSIST TO
WARRANT AN EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE GULF STREAM FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FT
AT LEAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS...CLOSER TO 15 KTS
ACROSS SOUTH LEG WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER. WINDS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE E TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REACHES THE MID
ATLC COAST. ALTHOUGH LOSS OF THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT OPPOSING THE
GULF STREAM WILL HELP STABILIZE THE SEA HGTS...EAST GRADIENT IS
FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY WHICH MAY REQUIRE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR
15-20 KTS ESP OFFSHORE WATERS. FOR NOW THOUGH HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT
16 KTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WX...DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE BUT MORE DIRECT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE AFTN. THIS WILL
PREVENT LONG DURATION OF CRITICAL RH VALUES (BELOW 35%) ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES AND EVEN MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. ACCORDING TO 03Z
LOCAL WRF MODEL...BEST CHANCE FOR LONG DURATION OF CRITICAL RH
VALUES IS OVER WESTERN LAKE COUNTY AND EVEN THIS LOOKS MARGINAL.
WILL UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN LAKE COUNTY TO RED FLAG WARNING
THIS AFTN...BUT CANCEL THE WATCH FOR INTERIOR VOLUSIA. ALTHOUGH ONE
TO TWO HOURS OF SUB-35% RH POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE AND ORANGE COUNTIES AS DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES DOWN TO THE SFC...RED FLAG CONDS NOT LIKELY THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCL CIGS ABOVE 12K FT MOVING IN
FROM THE W/NW.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTN FOR LAKE COUNTY...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  61  82  69 /   0  10  10  10
MCO  82  62  84  67 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  80  67  83  72 /   0  10   0  10
VRB  80  68  84  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....SHARP