Red Flag Warning 69, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
304 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...

...MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
...GETTING A LITTLE HOTTER BY THE WEEKEND...

TODAY/TONIGHT...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AROUND A
MESO-HIGH...ANALYZED BY MSAS JUST EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH. RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY...SANDWICHED BETWEEN
AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE WEAK ATTEMPT AT STARTING THE WET SEASON HAS
COME TO A SCREECHING HALT. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND IN THE UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 60S.

THU-FRI...SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH BROAD TROUGH ALONG
THE EAST COAST WITH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE STATE THU NIGHT. GFS
CONTINUES DRIER THAN THE NAM AND PREFER ITS SOLUTION GIVEN THE
INITIALLY VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST TO START OUT AN INCH OR LESS ON THU THEN
MOISTEN SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.  WITH LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PERCHED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WILL ONLY HOLD
ONTO SLIGHT AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN INTERIOR WHERE SEA
BREEZE MAY INTERACT WITH OKEECHOBEE BOUNDARY AND GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION.

GFS SHOWS CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRI
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NVA.  THOUGH WE WILL HAVE A WESTERLY
FLOW REGIME WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...MAV POPS ARE ONLY 10
PERCENT OR LESS.  CANNOT SEE GOING ABOVE THOSE NUMBERS AS
UKMET/ECMWF ALSO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS.

WEEKEND...TROUGH ALOFT WILL LIFT OUT ON SAT WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING FORECAST BY SUN.  LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO OUR
SOUTH WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW MAKING IT PROGRESSIVELY
MORE DIFFICULT FOR SEA BREEZE TO FORM.  WARMING 850 MB TEMPS ALSO
INDICATED SO EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 90S...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE NORTH PART.  MOISTURE STILL LOOKS LIMITED WITH 700 MB TEMPS
PROGGED TO GET TO 9-10 DEGREES...WHICH USUALLY SIGNALS VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION.  HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS...BUT NOT OPTIMISTIC ABOUT MOISTURE RECOVERING
ENOUGH FOR THIS TO OCCUR.

MON-TUE...LATEST GFS SHOWS TROUGH ALOFT REFORMING OVER THE EASTERN
U.S.  LOCALLY...MID LEVEL TROUGH IS SHOWN GRADUALLY REPLACING
RIDGING.  THE 64 THOUSAND DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR A DECENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
TO ENSUE.  THE GFS SHOWS THAT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGES PULLS NORTHWARD
...SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LIFT INTO THE AREA.  THERE IS ALSO
SOME SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF IN SHOWING THIS.  THEREFORE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT 30 PERCENT POPS FROM SOUTHERN SECTIONS MON TO MOST
OF THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS INDICATE THAT ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT
WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS MORNING. FLOW WILL VEER DURING THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT BUT GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 10 KT. LOCAL WAVE
ALGORITHM IS IN AGREEMENT WITH WAVE WATCH...SHOWING SEAS OF 2-3 FT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH STARTING THU NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CONDITIONS NEAR SHORE SHOULD BE GOOD OVER THE
WEEKEND FOR BOATING BUT IF VENTURING FAR OFFSHORE THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A CHOPPY WIND WAVE BUT WITH SEA HEIGHTS NOT MORE THAN 4 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GFS MOS INDICATES THAT DEWPOINTS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR COUNTIES. LATEST WRF RUN
ACTUALLY SHOWS DRIEST AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE CAPE
THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CONDITIONS
MAY INITIALLY BE DRY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES NORTH OF THE
CAPE...ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW
RH FROM BEING REALIZED. HOWEVER...FOUR OR MORE HOURS OF RH < 35
PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM DELTONA TO LAKE KISSIMMEE. WILL BE UPGRADING THE
WATCH TO A RFW FOR THESE AREAS.

THU...SLIGHT MOISTENING AHEAD OF TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM RH
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 35 PERCENT. PERSISTENCE WOULD ARGUE FOR SOME
LOWER VALUES SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR...BUT LONG DURATIONS WOULD NOT
BE EXPECTED.

LOWEST RH VALUES FORECAST ABOVE 40 PERCENT FRI AND ABOVE 50 PERCENT
BY MON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  65  90  68 /   0   0  10  05
MCO  92  63  91  69 /   0  05  10  05
MLB  87  69  88  70 /   0  05  10  10
VRB  86  66  87  69 /  05  05  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR INLAND VOLUSIA...LAKE...
 ORANGE...SEMINOLE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES.

&&

SHORT TERM...HIRSCH
LONG TERM....LASCODY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
311 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
080930-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
311 AM EDT WED JUN 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
THE FIRE THREAT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
DELTONA TO LAKE KISSIMMEE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.