Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Medford, OR

000 
WGUS76 KMFR 081603
FFSMFR

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
858 AM PDT THU JUN 8 2006

ORC035-081630-

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR DIKE FAILURE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KLAMATH COUNTY EXPIRES AT 900 AM PDT...

THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE AREA HAS ENDED. HOWEVER...A
POTENTIAL SECOND DIKE FAILURE HAS PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SAME LOCATION.

LAT...LON 4207 12200 4207 12176 4225 12175 4225 12200

$$

MWJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
300 AM PDT THU JUN 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE PACNW COAST WITH A VORT
MAX ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION LOW CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WITH A
MARINE PUSH. THE VORT MAX AND TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING. WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE  FOR
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE AIRMASS
WILL STABILIZE AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND...BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECTED ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE  TONIGHT...HOWEVER DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

FRIDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA BRINGING WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE PACNW LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST
SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING SUNDAY
EVENING THRU MONDAY AS A CUTOFF LOW FORMS TO THE SOUTH OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVES INLAND. THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE
SHOWN SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HANDLING THE CUTOFF LOW AND THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVING INLAND. THE ECMWF RUN INDICATES
THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE THRU TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE
LOW INLAND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE CUTOFF LOW IS UNCERTAIN. CURRENTLY
FORECASTING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER IF
THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
AREA THEN WE CAN EXPECT A SHOWERY PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.
&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR TONIGHT THRU THIS MORNING
ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND OVER THE UMPQUA AND INTO THE ROGUE AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...CAPE BLANCO OR TO OR/CA
                                      BORDER 0-60NM.
CA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS...OR/CA BORDER TO PT ST GEORGE CA
                                      0-60NM.

&&

CLARSTROM