Red Flag Warning 41, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
910 PM EDT THU MAY 4 2006

.UPDATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE ACTUALLY COME A LITTLE BIT
THIS EVENING...PEAKING OVER AN INCH ON THE 00Z SOUNDING. AREA GPSMET
VALUES CORROBORATE THIS AS WELL. THE ADDED MOISTURE WAS PROBABLY
DELIVERED ON DECENT SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
DEW POINTS ARE UP A LITTLE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WELL AT
LEAST OVER COASTAL AREAS. INLAND...DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
50S EAST OF THE LAKE. SKIES REMAIN VIRTUALLY CLEAR...AND EXPECT
WINDS TO DECOUPLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOK ACCEPTABLE IN THE GRIDS...NO CHANGES
PLANNED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIME TO REGROUP ON WHAT IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN
NEXT WEEK.  WE WILL START WITH THE KNOWNS.  WE HAVE OUR GULF OF
MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN WITH US THROUGH THE
WINTER AND SPRING.  IT HAS WEAKENED SOME AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
SIGNS OF WEAKENING BUT BY NO MEANS IS IT GOING AWAY.  WE HAVE A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WHICH HAS HAD SEVERAL
STRONG WAVES ROTATE THROUGH IT.  WE CAN SEE THE ITCZ MOVING NORTH
WITH THE SUN ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT BAND OF MOISTURE.   WE ARE
WAITING FOR SOME OF THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BREAK THROUGH OUR
RIDGE AND GET US INTO THE RAINY SEASON.

TODAY WE HAD A SMALL LOW NEAR 65W THAT HAS BROUGHT A BAND OF
MOISTURE INTO GEORGIA.  HOWEVER WITH THIS LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
RAPIDLY THIS MOISTURE SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH.  SO
STILL DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.  FROM FRIDAY ONWARD WE ARE PRIMARILY
WAITING FOR A STRONG ENOUGH TROUGH TO ALLOW US TO TAP INTO SOME DEEP
MOISTURE SINCE WE ARE GOING TO HAVE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT HEAT FOR
CONVECTION FROM NOW ON.  SHALLOW MOISTURE IS PRESENTLY BEING TAPPED
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THESE UPPER WAVES THAT ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  UNFORTURENATELY THESE DAMP OUT AS
THEY MOVE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE.  RECENTLY WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE
SCENERIO THAT SOME SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
MAJOR TROUGH OVER CANADA AND BRING A FRONTAL TROUGH INTO OUR
ZONES.  WE STARTED WITH THIS OCCURRING ON THIS WEEKEND AND HAVE NOW
MOVED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS TIME I AM BASICALLY GOING TO
QUIT CHASING A PARTICULAR FRONTAL TROUGH.  SINCE WE HAVE
PRECIPITATION IN FOR MONDAY WILL STICK WITH THAT TIMING SINCE THAT
LOOKS LIKE THE EARLIEST WE COULD HAVE THE MOISTURE.  HOWEVER IT
APPEARS WE MIGHT HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MUCH LATER IN THE WEEK. WILL
ONLY MENTION SHOWERS ON MONDAY FOR NOW BUT KEEP SOME LOW
PROBABILITIES IN AFTER MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...THE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC MANAGED TO INCREASE
THE WESTERLY WINDS TO OUR NORTH.  HOWEVER WE STILL SHOULD BE IN THE
SURFACE RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH OCCASIONALLY DEEPENING WE WILL
SEE SOME PERIODS OF 15 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS BUT SHOULD STILL STAY
BELOW CAUTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLAN NO CHANGES IN THE PRESENT WARNING AND WATCH
AREAS.  WE ARE STILL DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.  IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
STILL BE DRY ENOUGH FOR A WATCH ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE A DECISION ABOUT THIS LATER.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
455 AM EDT THU MAY 4 2006

FLZ063-066>075-050900-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
455 AM EDT THU MAY 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.