Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
855 PM CST WED FEB 1 2006

.UPDATE...
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. HARDER TO
EXPLAIN IS WHY DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF THE
RIVER...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEAST WINDS. BEST EXPLANATION
IS AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED ALOFT...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS REACHED THE BOUNDARY LAYER WEST
OF THE RIVER...BUT NOT TO POINTS EAST. LZK AND PAH RADAR HAVE
SHOWN LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.

LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. STILL APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL STAY OUT OF MOST OF THE CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WORDING IN ZONES SPLIT BETWEEN EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SO...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IN FORECAST IS CORRECT...WILL NEED AN
UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING TO ELIMINATE TIME SENSITIVE WORDING.
UPDATE WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AROUND 05Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 253 PM CST WED FEB 1 2006)

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CAUSE RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID-
SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE TOMORROW. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES.

RAIN WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...PROVIDING A DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL DAY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AS FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS STATES. THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS COMPARED TO THE 12Z NAM AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
12Z UKMET...WHICH AMPLIFY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MORE ROBUSTLY AND
FORM A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW. AT THIS TIME...PREFER THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTION AS THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE. WITH THIS IN MIND ALONG WITH INCREASED
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW AVERAGE
FOR SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP TO ADVECT COOLER AIRMASS
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN WITH DRY WEATHER
AND A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
BY MONDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. COOLER
WEATHER...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT. JUST
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PART OF THIS FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A DECENT PATTERN CHANGE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO MORE WINTERLIKE CONDITIONS. WE WILL HAVE
TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

WAGNER/JLH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
405 AM CST WED FEB 1 2006

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-021100-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
405 AM CST WED FEB 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.