Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Warnings in 2006

Tornado Warning 109, NWS St. Louis, MO

September 22, 2006Jefferson County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this tornado warning at Sep 22, 2006, 5:07 PM CDT for Jefferson County, Missouri. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 22, 2006, 5:07 PM CDT (22:07 UTC)
Expired: Sep 22, 2006, 5:40 PM CDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Jefferson County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this tornado warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Sep 22, 1:16 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 269 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 831 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 571 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 612 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WFUS53 KLSX 222207
TORLSX
MOC099-222300-
/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0109.060922T2207Z-060922T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
507 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 504 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION 12 MILES WEST OF DE
  SOTO...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HILLSBORO...
  DE SOTO...
  OLYMPIAN VILLAGE...
  FESTUS...
  CRYSTAL CITY...
  HERCULANEUM...
  PEVELY...
  BARNHART...

THIS TORNADO WARNING IS AN UPGRADE TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR THE WARNED AREA.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3833 9077 3811 9079 3812 9025 3822 9036
      3844 9038

$$

TES

1 follow-up statement

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 222240
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
540 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

MOC099-222244-
/O.CAN.KLSX.TO.W.0109.000000T0000Z-060922T2300Z/
JEFFERSON MO-
540 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO WATCH 
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3833 9077 3811 9079 3812 9025 3822 9036
      3844 9038

$$

TES

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this tornado warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this tornado warning went out at Sep 22, 2:15 PM CDT, 2 hours 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 22, 2:15 PM CDT, 2 hours 52 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
215 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THAT THERE WILL BE AN EXTENDED
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING TORNADOES FROM THIS AFTERNOON...
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.  REFER TO LATEST SWODY1 AND SWOMCD
FOR UPDATED DETAILS.  HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE GFS OVER THE NAM
BECAUSE IT CONTINUES TO LINE UP BETTER WITH THE OTHER MODELS.  NAM
IS DEEPER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...AND IT IS NOW SLOWER THAN THE
GFS AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY.

LIKE HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IT WILL BE TOMORROW UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY TIMING TO ONGOING
SEVERE WEATHER.  LATEST LOOK AT THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THREE
IMPULSES IN THE FAST MOVING MID-UPPER LEVEL WSWLY FLOW...ONE OVER
KS...ANOTHER OVER CO AND ANOTHER OVER UT...THAT WILL SUPPLY MODEST
LARGE SCALE ASCENT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 65-70F RANGE IN THE WARM SECTOR. MLCAPES
THIS AFTN AND EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1000 IN THE NRN COUNTIES TO
2500 IN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70...AND REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH
OVERNIGHT. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING IN THE MORNING...BUT GFS DEPICTS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINOUS VIGOROUS
DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT CLUSTER OF SVR...POSSIBLY TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS OVR CNTRL/SERN MO WL CONTINUE TO PUSH NEWD IN THE
SHORT TERM. BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CLUSTER AS WELL AS MODEST
CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONT OVR NERN AND CNTRL MO WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. BOTH THE
NAM/GFS HAVE A SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY 12Z SATURDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ALSO ACT AS
FOCUS FOR STORMS. SO THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CLUSTERS OF STORMS...INCLUDING LINE
SEGMENTS PRODUCING SEVERE WINDS AND FAST MOVING...LONG LIVED
SUPERCELLS...GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR OF 60-80KTS...WELL INTO THE THE
NIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW. LOW LCLS AND VERY STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR
WILL LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD SUGGESTING THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES.

WILL GO WITH THE IDEA THAT THE CHANCE OF TSRA AND ACCOMPANYING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRAUDALLY END AS THE FRONT MOVES SEWD
TOMORROW AFTN AND TOMORROW EVENING.  MODELS STILL SHOW A DECENT
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT CHC
OF SHRA.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THEN DRIES UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.

NGM MOS TEMPS LOOKED A BIT WARM COMPARED TO THE ETA AND GFS MOS FROM
TOMORROW ON...SO USED A BLEND OF THOSE TWO PLUS PERSISTENCE.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD (MONDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...LONGWAVE H500 TROF
WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD OVER ERN NOAM...AND THANKS TO A REINFORCING
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGGING OUT OF CANADA...WILL RETROGRADE SOME TO THE
NRN/CNTRL MS VALLEY BY MID WEEK. GFS/NOGAPS ADVERTISE A DEEPER TROF
THAN THE ECMWF/CMC. WITH EXPECTED PASSAGE OF H500 TROF AXIS BY
THURSDAY...RESIDUAL PIECES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER FOR
ANOTHER 24HRS OR SO BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO A NWLY FLOW REGIME. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK RIDGE IS JUST E OF THE FA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WITH SOME MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN AHEAD OF APPROACHING
CDFNT BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. CDFNT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE
FA DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CANADIAN HI
PRES THEN BUILDING IN FOR LATE WEEK. BUMPED UP POPS SOME TO 20-30PCT
FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY AS CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED FOR THE MID WEEK EVENT...MAINLY CENTERED AROUND THE CDFNT.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STRONG SHORTWAVES REINFORCING MEAN H500 TROF
POSITION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND A SLOWING DOWN LO
LEVEL CDFNT...HAS INCREASED THE POSSIBILITY FOR POST-FRONTAL PCPN TO
DEVELOP PER THE GFS MODEL. TEMPS WILL BE AOA NORMAL FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD...BUT THEN TRANSITION TO BLO NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK
WITH PRESENCE OF DEEP H500 TROF AND STRONG CANADIAN HI.

BRITT/TES

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...A SPECIAL 16Z SGF SOUNDING INDICATES THE WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AS IT MOISTENS
AND HEATS...CAPE WAS IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY
CONTS TO DEVELOP NEWD AS MOISTURE SURGES TO THE NE AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY DRAPPED FROM NE MO THRU WRN MO INTO SE OK. STORMS ARE
ALREADY FIRING SW OF KCOU AND EXPECT OVR THE NEXT HR OR SO...CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND WL MOVE TO THE ENE AROUND 50 MPH. THINK
ACTIVITY WL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF KUIN. REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES
SHOULD HAVE A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FOLLOWING THE GFS MODEL SOLN THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST AND
THEN WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STG-SVR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
SAT MRNG SPREADING NEWD IN ADVANCE OF A SFC LOW.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 22, 3:59 PM CDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
359 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-231200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-CLINTON IL-
COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-IRON-JEFFERSON-
JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-MADISON IL-MARION-
MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-
PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST CHARLES-
ST CLAIR IL-ST FRANCOIS-ST LOUIS-ST LOUIS CITY-STE GENEVIEVE-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
359 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

...ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT.

AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH
STRONG WIND SHEAR THOUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEVERAL DIFFERENT ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LONG LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...AND THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...
VERY LARGE HAIL...AND STRONG TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF SEVERE STORMS LEFT
OVER FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING.  ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.  THE STORMS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SPOTTER ACTIVATION.

BRITT

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 22, 4:42 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
442 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GRUBVILLE               38.29N 90.75W
09/22/2006  M0.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.00 SINCE 1430 CDT

&&

BMILLER

Local storm report, Sep 22, 4:43 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
443 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             DITTMER                 38.33N 90.68W
09/22/2006  E0.88 INCH       JEFFERSON          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BMILLER

Local storm report, Sep 22, 4:53 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
453 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     HAIL             ANTONIA                 38.36N 90.47W
09/22/2006  E0.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BMILLER

Local storm report, Sep 22, 4:54 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
454 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TORNADO          ROCKWOOD                37.84N 89.70W
09/22/2006                   RANDOLPH           IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            UNKNOWN NUMBER OF INJURIES...TREES DOWN

&&

BMILLER

Local storm report, Sep 22, 5:00 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
500 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TORNADO          RADOM                   38.28N 89.19W
09/22/2006                   WASHINGTON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BMILLER

Local storm report, Sep 22, 5:06 PM CDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
506 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             FOUNTAIN                38.36N 90.29W
09/22/2006  E0.75 INCH       MONROE             IL   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

BMILLER

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 22, 1:59 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Crawford, Franklin, Washington	76 min
Sep 22, 2:02 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Crawford, Washington	43 min
Sep 22, 2:12 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Iron, Reynolds	63 min
Sep 22, 2:43 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Saint Francois, Washington	41 min
Sep 22, 3:10 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Jefferson, Washington	37 min
Sep 22, 3:13 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Iron, Madison, Sainte Genevieve, Saint Francois	47 min
Sep 22, 4:13 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Iron, Reynolds, Washington	62 min
Sep 22, 4:17 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Franklin, Jefferson	43 min
Sep 22, 4:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Franklin, Jefferson, Washington	49 min
Sep 22, 5:02 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Sainte Genevieve, Saint Francois	58 min
Sep 22, 5:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Crawford	48 min
Sep 22, 6:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Washington	56 min
Sep 22, 6:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Jefferson	44 min

Nearby

Tornado Warnings in Missouri, 2006 Every tornado warning in 2006 Tornadoes in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.