Tornado Warning 18, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
956 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

.UPDATE...
ACTUAL TIDES ARE RUNNING FROM 2 TO 2.5 FT ABOVE PREDICTED TIDES.
HIGH TIDES EXPECTED FROM 1 TO 2 AM. I WILL RETAIN THE COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING.

I ALSO ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL MARSHES OF
LOUISIANA. OTHERWISE ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006)

SYNOPSIS...MUCH ANTICIPATED RAIN EVENT HAS BEGUN. IF RATHER LARGE
MASS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTSORMS IN THE NORTHWEST GULF MAINTAINS
COLD CLOUD TOPS PER IR IMAGERY, HEAVY AND CONTINUOS RAINS WILL
REACH THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND 9 PM THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO COME
ASHORE ABOUT THAT TIME PER LATEST RUC. SO FAR, LCH HAS RECORDED
68 INCHES OF RAIN. BPT HAS RECORED 1.38 INCHES AND IT IS RAINING
THERE AT A RATE OF ABOUT A HALF INCH AN HOUR.

DISCUSSION...WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH VALID TNITE THRU MONDAY NIGHT.
WENT SOMEWHAT LOWER ON TEMPS VS GUIDANCE TNITE DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS OUT FOR 5 TO LOCALLY 10 INCHES OF
RAIN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT IS ALSO OUT FOR TIDES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON, CAUSING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY, TIDE LEVELS SHOULD LOWER CLOSER TO NORMAL.

AVIATION...IFR CIGS/VIS IN HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS. GUSTY
ESE WINDS. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...STRONG ESE WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARDS 11 FEET IN
THE OUTER WATERS, SCA CONTINUES.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...
     ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...
     EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER
     ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
     MARTIN...VERMILION...AND VERNON.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CAMERON...IBERIA...ST. MARY...AND VERMILION.

TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...
     JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE...AND TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA
     TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20
     NM TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1202 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-161715-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
1202 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GM...CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OUT OF THE
GULF TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND GULF WILL
PRODUCE RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERTORMS. UP TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FAVORABLE TURNING IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COULD
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO ROTATE. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROLONGED RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY.
A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS MONDAY. RAIN EVENT
TOTALS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY COULD AVERAGE 5
INCHES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES.
TRAINING OF FAST MOVING STORMS COULD MEAN A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
RECEIVE OVER 5 INCHES IN A FEW SHORT HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ANYTIME BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

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