Flash Flood Warning 87, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA72 TJSJ 202026
FFSSJU

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
424 PM AST FRI OCT 20 2006

PRC013-017-047-051-054-091-101-135-137-143-145-202034-
DORADO-COROZAL-MANATI-FLORIDA-BARCELONETA-MOROVIS-TOA ALTA-VEGA
ALTA-ARECIBO-VEGA BAJA-TOA BAJA-
424 PM AST FRI OCT 20 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM AST FOR THE 
FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
     DORADO...COROZAL...MANATI...FLORIDA...BARCELONETA...MOROVIS...
     TOA ALTA...VEGA ALTA...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA AND TOA BAJA

HEAVY RAINS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA AND ALL RIVERS APPEAR 
TO BE SUBSIDING AT THIS TIME. DEEP PONDED WATER IN AREAS THAT ARE 
POORLY DRAINED STILL REMAINS...THEREFORE MOTORISTS SHOULD USE GREAT 
PRUDENCE IN CROSSING FLOODED STREETS EVEN WHERE THE DEPTH IS KNOWN.

LAT...LON 1851 6624 1834 6625 1834 6661 1851 6664

$$

SNELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
411 AM AST FRI OCT 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE UNDER A SIMILAR
WEATHER SCENARIO TODAY AS IN PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. AT THE LOW LEVELS
THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE AREA
SINCE SEVERAL DAYS AGO. ASSOCIATED TO THIS...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTH COMPONENT TODAY AND SATURDAY...ALLOWING
FOR GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE 200MB STREAMLINES/WINDS
ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATED THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MORE TO THE WEST AND
THE LOCAL AREA UNDER MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ACTIVE WEATHER.
THIS WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE 225MB-100MB SATELLITE WINDS.

IN SUMMARY...THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AT THE LOW AND UPPER
LEVELS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AGAIN TODAY. GFS40 MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A HIGHLY SATURATED AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SAME GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DELAYING
THE EFFECTS OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE WE
MAY HAVE ITS EFFECTS LONGER INTO THE FUTURE.

OVERNIGHT...MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA WERE TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS
WILL ALLOW MORE HEATING IN THE MORNING HOURS TO TRIGGER SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST NORTH
NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION INTO THE ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE ACTIVITY IS NOW FOCUSED OVER THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD
WEST...AND PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY WINDS AND INTENSE
LIGHTNING OVER THE REST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TODAY WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS. ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOW CEILING...VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY AT THE AIRPORTS OR IN THE VICINITY OF
THEM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN SLOPES AND
VALLEYS OF PUERTO RICO...OVER VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING PROBLEMS LIKELY ACROSS THESE
SECTIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...MONTH TO DATE RAINFALL AMOUNT MEASURED AT THE LMM
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS 8.34 INCHES. THIS IS 5.33 INCHES ABOVE
THE NORMAL VALUE OF 3.01 INCHES. 12.36 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL
VALUE HAVE BEEN MEASURED YEAR TO DATE AT THE LMM INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  78  89  77 /  70  40  60  50
STT  87  79  87  78 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR PRZ002-PRZ003-
     PRZ004-PRZ012-PRZ013.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR VIZ001-VIZ002.

&&

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST FRI OCT 20 2006

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-211000-
630 AM AST FRI OCT 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE...AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN A POSITION TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE. AS A
RESULT...ACTIVE WEATHER CAN ONCE AGAIN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-211000-
630 AM AST FRI OCT 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE...AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN A POSITION TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE. AS A
RESULT...ACTIVE WEATHER CAN ONCE AGAIN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF URBAN AND GUT FLOODING...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUIRED TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.

FROM YOUR PDA/PHONE: HTTP://MOBILE.SRH.NOAA.GOV OR
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WML