Tornado Warning 1, NWS Wichita, KS

000 
WWUS53 KICT 121921
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
121 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

KSC001-207-122000-
/O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060312T2000Z/
WOODSON KS-ALLEN KS-
121 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN ALLEN AND NORTHEASTERN
WOODSON COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CST...

AT 119 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR IOLA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN WOODSON
AND NORTHERN ALLEN COUNTIES.

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

LAT...LON 3780 9563 3782 9538 3801 9510 3803 9537
      3801 9561

$$

BOWMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

.UPDATE...
WILL BE ISSUING A TORNADO WATCH VERY SHORTLY FOR
COWLEY...BUTLER AND CHASE COUNTIES ON EASTWARD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO FIRE NEAR THE OK BORDER...AS SFC BASED AND
MLCIN ARE ARE NEAR ZERO. INSTABILITY AND HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT.

WIND ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT BEHIND THE DRYLINE FOR STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS.

ADK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006/

UPDATE...
RECENTLY SENT FORECAST UPDATE TO EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS.
RADAR/SATELLITE SHOW ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET FOCUSES THETA-E ADVECTION
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. RUC40 SOUNDINGS PROG UP TO 1,000 CAPE ABOVE
850 MB THIS MORNING...AND WITH STRONG 800-500 MB SHEAR
PRESENT...ITS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS
TODAY AND STRONG WINDS/EXTREME FIRE DANGER AREAWIDE TODAY.

TODAY:
CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOUTHEAST CO WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
OK. MODELS SUGGEST SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW AS IT REACHES
KANSAS CITY AREA BY EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF EJECTS OUT OF
SOUTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET
ISOLATED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST KS WITH 850 THETA-E
ADVECTION UNDERWAY BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN. OTHERWISE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
TRAILING NORTH TO SOUTH DRYLINE THROUGH THE FLINT HILLS. SBCAPE OF
AROUND 2,000 J/KG WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROGGED
THIS AFTERNOON. AS DRYLINE MIXES SLOWLY EASTWARD OUT OF EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KS BY 00Z...STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS (5 TO 9 MB/6
HR) IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF ENTERING WESTERN KS MAY
ALLOW ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO TO INITIATE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS MID-LATE PM...BEFORE STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY
EAST INTO WESTERN MO. THUS WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 POP THERE WITH
MENTION OF SEVERE...ALTHOUGH WE THINK SIGNIFICANT SEVERE MORE
LIKELY TO OUR EAST AS STORMS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH RESIDENT TIME IN
SOUTHEAST KS TO MATURE (STORM MOTION VECTOR 250/45 KT).
MEANWHILE...DRY ADIABATIC SURFACE TO 700 MB LAPSE RATES BEHIND
DRYLINE AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWNWARD
TOWARD SURFACE VIA MOMENTUM TRANSFER. PLANNING TO EXPAND WIND
ADVISORY INTO FLINT HILLS. MOST CONFIDENT ON REACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS/FLINT HILLS AS OPPOSED TO
CENTRAL KS. FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME RESULTING FROM THE STRONG
WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND 15 TO 30% RH.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY:
NOT MUCH IN WAY OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND POSITIVELY-TILTED
DEPARTING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF. THEREFORE...ONLY ANTICIPATING A
PERIOD OF LOWER-MIDDLE CLOUDS IN MAINLY CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS
OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE PERIOD
OF STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION. COOLER PACIFIC AIRMASS TO BUILD
IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ANY MEANINGFUL GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
SHUNTED TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE CONTINUING DRY FORECAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF WAVE SHOULD ALLOW US TO WARM UP TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY MIX OF
COOLER PACIFIC/CANADIAN AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER TROF SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER TROF AND THE GFS HINTS THAT GULF MAY TRY TO OPEN UP LATE IN
THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY WARRANTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY.

CARUSO

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  37  53  27 /  10  10   5   5
HUTCHINSON      71  36  51  26 /  10  10  10   5
NEWTON          73  37  51  26 /  10  10  10   5
ELDORADO        76  38  52  26 /  20  10  10   5
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  39  55  27 /  10  10   5   0
RUSSELL         67  31  49  23 /  10  10  10   5
GREAT BEND      67  33  50  24 /  10  10  10   5
SALINA          68  34  49  24 /  20  10  10   5
MCPHERSON       70  35  50  25 /  10  10  10   5
COFFEYVILLE     81  42  56  26 /  30  10   5   0
CHANUTE         80  41  52  25 /  30  10  10   0
IOLA            79  41  51  25 /  30  20  10   5
PARSONS-KPPF    80  41  54  26 /  30  10   5   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-
082-083-091>094-098.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1209 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-131200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1209 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY EUREKA TO HOWARD TO SEDAN.
TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
WIND SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL.

IN ADDITION...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND PART OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS THRU THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS THAT MAY REACH 45 MPH
WILL CAUSE EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS ALL AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY EUREKA TO HOWARD TO SEDAN.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES/ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1246 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     HAIL             1 S HOWARD              37.46N 96.26W
03/12/2006  E2.75 INCH       ELK                KS   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAIL SIZES RANGED FROM GOLFBALL TO BASEBALL.

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1249 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 PM     HAIL             YATES CENTER            37.87N 95.74W
03/12/2006  M0.88 INCH       WOODSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CDJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1251 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

KSZ098-099-121915-
CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-
1251 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR CHAUTAUQUA AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 1247 PM CST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HALE...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF SEDAN...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1254 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 PM     HAIL             YATES CENTER            37.87N 95.74W
03/12/2006  E0.75 INCH       WOODSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1257 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 PM     HAIL             YATES CENTER            37.87N 95.74W
03/12/2006  E1.75 INCH       WOODSON            KS   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
108 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     HAIL             YATES CENTER            37.87N 95.74W
03/12/2006  M0.88 INCH       WOODSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CDJ