Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
353 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH STRONG
DRYING OCCURRING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH
LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND BREAKING CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED VERY GOOD SURFACE WARMING ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA AND
WESTERN GEORGIA...THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM FROM
EARLIER TODAY. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EVENING
CONVECTION BUT THE THREAT SHOULD BE SHUTTING DOWN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z. CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN MILD WITH ONLY WEAK
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ARE REPORTING WINDS GUSTING
UP NEAR 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE STRONG
850MB WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST AREAS
EXCEPT THE HIGHEST RIDGES AND PEAKS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY OR HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
HAVE KEPT THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY THROUGH DAY SEVEN. WE DO GET A
SERIES OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS THROUGH
THE AREA...BUT THE MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE FOR THEM TO
WORK WITH. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WE HAVE HAD THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BECOMES AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY MORE STATIC AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST
ANCHORING A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE TROUGH
AXIS REMAINS EAST OF GEORGIA KEEPING US IN A PRETTY STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW SITUATION. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS THAN WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA         45  57  40  64 /  20   5   0  10
ATHENS          45  60  39  65 /  30  10   0  10
GAINESVILLE     44  56  40  61 /  30  10   0  10
ROME            44  58  37  64 /  20   5   0  10
COLUMBUS        47  64  41  68 /  20   5   0  10
MACON           47  64  36  65 /  30   5   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
600 AM EST MON JAN 2 2006

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-CRAWFORD-
CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-FANNIN-FAYETTE-
FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-
HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-
OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-
SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-
TELFAIR-TOOMBS-TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-
WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
600 AM EST MON JAN 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY
BRINGING VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR TO MUCH OF GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. BY MIDDAY...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE BUT
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH NEAR
2000 ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 OVER
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. 0 TO 1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 150 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS COMBINATION
OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.
ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING TORNADOES WILL BE
BETWEEN NOON AND 6PM ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA AND BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9
PM ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO ATHENS
LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A DRY AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO GEORGIA TUESDAY ENDING
ANY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OR OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER. SOME RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FOR WESTERN GEORGIA BETWEEN 9 AM
AND 6PM...AND FROM NOON TO 9PM ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA. ALL
PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

&&

FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

SNELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
106 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

GAZ081>083-093>095-021830-

106 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS
IN MACON...HOUSTON...PEACH...CRAWFORD...TWIGGS AND BIBB COUNTIES
UNTIL 130 PM EST...

AT 101 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
ARE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MACON COUNTY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS MACON...HOUSTON...PEACH...CRAWFORD...TWIGGS AND BIBB
COUNTIES. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR MOVE OUT OF THE
COUNTIES BY 130 PM EST.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

TDP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
215 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

GAZ104>106-108-030715-
SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-WILCOX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AMERICUS...CORDELE
215 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE CREEKS AND
RIVERS IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN HAVE CAUSED
SHARP RISES ON THE CREEKS AND RIVERS IN SUMTER...DOOLY...CRISP AND
WILCOX COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES
HAVE OCCURRED IN THIS AREA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 1 PM
EST. MOST OF THE SMALLER CREEKS SHOULD BEGIN REACHING BANKFULL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THIS RAIN.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST THROUGH GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE GROUND IS QUITE SATURATED NOW IN THIS FOUR COUNTY AREA
SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CAUSE IMMEDIATE RUNOFF INTO THE
CREEKS AND RIVERS.

PERSONS HAVING AN INTEREST IN THE CREEKS AND RIVERS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE FLOOD
WATCH THIS EVENING.

KDF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
329 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

GAZ110>113-022115-

329 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN TELFAIR...
WHEELER...TOOMBS AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EST...

AT 328 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR JACKSONVILLE AND LUMBER CITY. THESE STORMS
WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS TELFAIR...WHEELER...MONTGOMERY AND TOOMBS COUNTIES. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
439 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

GAZ030-041-022215-

439 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL IN HARALSON AND POLK
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EST...

AT 438 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PELTON MOVING AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
HARALSON AND POLK COUNTIES. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM...WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
449 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

GAZ020-021-022215-

449 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL IN CHEROKEE AND BARTOW
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EST...

AT 446 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WHITE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES
ACROSS BARTOW AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS ALSO
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM...WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR MOVE OUT OF THE COUNTY
BY 515 PM EST.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
506 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

GAZ013-014-021-032-022245-

506 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL IN COBB...CHEROKEE...
PICKENS AND DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EST...

AT 505 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM MARBLEHILL TO MARIETTA...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS  COBB...CHEROKEE...PICKENS AND DAWSON COUNTIES. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.