Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
308 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SETTING UP FOR AN ACTIVE EVENING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY-NE CWA AND STORMS BACK-BUILD
WESTWARD. AMS OVER THE CWA CONTS TO DESTABILIZE ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THERE WILL BE A THREAT
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE BACK-BUILDING STORMS REDEVELOP AND
TRAIN SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE NRN CWA THIS EVENING BUT FEEL HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED
SO WILL ADD MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATHER THAN ISSUE A WATCH
FOR THE TIME BEING. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY ENDING OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COOLER DRIER NWLY FLOW TO PREVAIL THIS WEEK WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL WARM
TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMS STARTING TUESDAY. THE NWLY FLOW WEAKENS BY
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A BROAD FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.. A RETURN TO SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK WILL RETURN HIGHER HUMIDITIES TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED AMS CONVECTION NOT WORTH
MENTIONING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  80  55  89 / 60 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  62  77  50  85 / 60 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  76  60  87 / 70 50 -  0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  77  56  86 / 60 30 -  0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
505 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-151015-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
505 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. A MINOR THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS TODAY ALONG
SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND A COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE
MAIN THREAT IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE
STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
252 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             LLANO                   30.75N 98.67W
05/14/2006  E1.75 INCH       LLANO              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

WR