Wind Advisory 12, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS73 KDDC 161834
NPWDDC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1234 PM CST THU MAR 16 2006

...WINDS SUBSIDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

.THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS DECREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS SO
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

KSZ030-031-045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090-161945-
/O.CAN.KDDC.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-060316T2000Z/
TREGO-ELLIS-NESS-RUSH-HODGEMAN-PAWNEE-STAFFORD-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAKEENEY...CEDAR BLUFF RESERVOIR...
HAYS...ELLIS...NESS CITY...LA CROSSE...RUSH CENTER...JETMORE...
HANSTON...LARNED...BURDETT...ST. JOHN...STAFFORD...HUDSON...
DODGE CITY...BUCKLIN...KINSLEY...LEWIS...GREENSBURG...HAVILAND...
PRATT...ASHLAND...MINNEOLA...COLDWATER...PROTECTION...
MEDICINE LODGE...KIOWA...SUN CITY
1234 PM CST THU MAR 16 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
316 AM CST THU MAR 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF IS MOVING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THIS HAS PUSHED A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE STILL QUITE STRONG...850MB WINDS
OF 50KTS...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THRU MIDDAY. SOME AREAS MAY BE
BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY FOR SOME TIME THIS MORNING...BEFORE THE
WINDS SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER
WITH THE CONTINUED DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MADE LITTLE
CHANGE TO GOING MAXES.

WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND WEAK WINDS TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF NICELY
TONIGHT SO HAVE LOWERED MINS A COUPLE DEGREES.

THE NEXT UPPER TROF BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE WEST COAST BY
FRIDAY AND THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, SOME COLD AIR IS IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THIS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THE CENTRAL US SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AND MODELS NOW SHOW DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS
FROM MIDDAY ON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES BEING OVER
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES EITHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AIR IS STILL DRY DOWN LOW BUT
LIKELY NOT DEEP ENUF TO PREVENT PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASING CLOUDS, HIGH TEMPS
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S.

GFS/UKMET SHIFT THE BEST WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE EAST OF WESTERN
KS BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. THE LOWER LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE WITH
CONTINUED MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. WITH WEAK 850MB WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING TO PROVIDE
AT LEAST SOME LIFT...ALBEIT SMALL...SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AREA
WIDE TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW AM USING THE UKMET SURFACE
TEMPS...KEEPING MINS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION KICKING IN.  LACY

DAYS 3-7...

ECMWF IS SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH UPCOMING STORM
SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS FROM THE 18Z
RUN IS TRENDING WITH PUSHING SYSTEM THROUGH AREA A LITTLE FASTER AND
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF.  THE GFS THEN PUTS OUT OVER 1.25
INCHES QPF OVER KDDC WHILE LOOKING AT THE ECMWF...BEST MOISTURE
STAYS NORTH AND EAST OF US AND MAY BRING SOME DECENT PRECIP TO FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.  NOT GOING TO JUMP ON ANY ONE SOLUTION AND MAKE
SWEEPING CHANGES.  THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND ONLY RAISED
POPS A BIT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN BEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING OVER AREA.  PRECIP TYPE SHOULD STAY IN
THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF UPPER LOW...THEN CHANGE
OVER TO SOME SNOW FOR MONDAY.  JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS WILL DETERMINE IF WE SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING GOING INTO MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME DECENT WRAP AROUND SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  24  45  35 /   0   0  20  20
GCK  57  23  46  35 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  59  29  47  37 /   0   0  20  10
LBL  60  27  46  37 /   0   0  20  10
HYS  54  20  43  33 /   0   0   0  20
P28  59  27  48  37 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN27/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
413 AM CST THU MAR 16 2006

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-171015-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
413 AM CST THU MAR 16 2006 /313 AM MST THU MAR 16 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER WINDY AND MILD DAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL COMBINE WITH
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND DRY VEGETATION TO PRODUCE A VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER TODAY. OUTDOOR BURNING OF ANY KIND IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED...AS THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND
SPREAD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT...SO CHECK BACK FOR FURTHER UPDATES TO
THE FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LACY