High Wind Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WWUS71 KBUF 151931
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
231 PM EST WED FEB 15 2006

...DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE
PLAINS THURSDAY AND THEN DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE TO SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TRACK OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW IS FAVORABLE FOR VERY STRONG...POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-160500-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0001.060217T0000Z-060217T2100Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
231 PM EST WED FEB 15 2006

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING...BUT DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THURSDAY NIGHT WOULD LIKELY BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ALSO ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD AVERAGE AS
HIGH AS 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. THESE SPEEDS COULD CAUSE
PROPERTY DAMAGE...DOWN TREES...ESPECIALLY SHALLOW ROOTED
ONES...AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

THE STRONG WINDS ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF A SURGE OF WATER ON
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE. THIS COULD CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS
FOR A FEW HOURS.

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS AS THE STORM
APPROACHES.


$$

NYZ003>008-013-014-160500-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0001.060217T0000Z-060217T2100Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
231 PM EST WED FEB 15 2006

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING...BUT DAMAGING WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT WOULD LIKELY
BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY AND
ALSO OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU...AND THE NORTH SOUTH SECTION OF
THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING FORT DRUM.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD AVERAGE AS HIGH AS 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THESE SPEEDS COULD
CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE...DOWN TREES...AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS AS THE STORM
APPROACHES.

$$

000 
WWUS71 KBUF 160839
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
339 AM EST THU FEB 16 2006

...DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT 
TRACKS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND ON TO QUEBEC 
DURING FRIDAY. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT PASSES 
JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND SWINGS A SHARP COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR 
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS TRACK OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW IS 
FAVORABLE FOR VERY STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-161645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0001.060217T0000Z-060217T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0001.060217T0000Z-060217T2100Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
339 AM EST THU FEB 16 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO 
TONIGHT AND ON TO QUEBEC FRIDAY. ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL RACE 
ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY FRIDAY. 

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE 
STORM APPROACHES...BUT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE 
RESTRICTED MAINLY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE 
THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD AVERAGE AS HIGH 
AS 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH...HIGHEST IN THE BUFFALO TO 
ROCHESTER CORRIDOR. THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL 
BE IN THE 6 AM TO 11 AM TIME PERIOD. 

THE STRONG WINDS ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF A SURGE OF WATER ON
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE. THIS COULD CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS
FOR A FEW HOURS.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AT
ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ003>008-013-014-161645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0001.060217T0000Z-060217T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0001.060217T0000Z-060218T0000Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
339 AM EST THU FEB 16 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO 
TONIGHT AND ON TO QUEBEC FRIDAY. ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL RACE 
ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY FRIDAY. 

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE 
STORM APPROACHES...BUT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE 
RESTRICTED MAINLY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS LIKE THE BRISTOL HILLS AND 
ALONG THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR AFTER THE PASSAGE 
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO THE  
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD AVERAGE 40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 
60 MPH...HIGHEST IN THE ROCHESTER AREA AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.  
THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7 AM TO 
NOON TIME PERIOD IN THE ROCHESTER AREA...AND 9 AM TO 2 PM AROUND 
WATERTOWN. 

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR
GREATER AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY
ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY
TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$
MCLAUGHLIN

000 
WWUS71 KBUF 161448
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
948 AM EST THU FEB 16 2006

...DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS
IT TRACKS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND ON TO
QUEBEC DURING FRIDAY. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND SWINGS A SHARP COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS TRACK OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
LOW IS FAVORABLE FOR VERY STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS OUR
REGION.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-162300-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0001.060217T0000Z-060217T2100Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
948 AM EST THU FEB 16 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM EST FRIDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM EST FRIDAY. 

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT AND ON TO QUEBEC FRIDAY. ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL RACE ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY FRIDAY.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS
THE STORM APPROACHES...BUT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE RESTRICTED MAINLY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD AVERAGE AS
HIGH AS 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH...HIGHEST IN THE BUFFALO
TO ROCHESTER CORRIDOR. THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 6 AM TO 11 AM TIME PERIOD.

THE STRONG WINDS ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE A SURGE OF
WATER ON THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE. THIS COULD CAUSE FLOODING
PROBLEMS FOR A FEW HOURS.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ003>008-013-014-162300-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0001.060217T0000Z-060218T0000Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
948 AM EST THU FEB 16 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST FRIDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST FRIDAY. 

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ILLNIOS TO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT AND ON TO QUEBEC FRIDAY. ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL RACE ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY FRIDAY.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS
THE STORM APPROACHES...BUT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE RESTRICTED MAINLY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS LIKE THE
BRISTOL HILLS AND ALONG THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD AVERAGE 40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH...HIGHEST IN THE ROCHESTER AREA AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE
7 AM TO NOON TIME PERIOD IN THE ROCHESTER AREA...AND 9 AM TO 2 PM
AROUND WATERTOWN.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

$$

SAGE

000 
WWUS71 KBUF 162044
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
344 PM EST THU FEB 16 2006

...DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT
AND ON TO QUEBEC DURING FRIDAY. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND SWINGS A
SHARP COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS TRACK OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING LOW IS FAVORABLE FOR VERY
STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-170445-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0001.060217T0000Z-060217T2100Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
344 PM EST THU FEB 16 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM EST FRIDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM EST FRIDAY. 

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...BUT
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE RESTRICTED TO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALSO ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD AVERAGE AS
HIGH AS 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH...HIGHEST IN THE BUFFALO
TO ROCHESTER CORRIDOR. THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 5 AM TO 11 AM TIME PERIOD.

THE STRONG WINDS ALSO CAUSE A SURGE OF WATER ON THE EASTERN END
OF LAKE ERIE. THIS COULD CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR A FEW HOURS.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ003>008-013-014-170445-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0001.060217T0000Z-060218T0000Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
344 PM EST THU FEB 16 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST FRIDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST FRIDAY. 

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING BUT THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE RESTRICTED MAINLY TO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS LIKE THE BRISTOL HILLS AND ALONG THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD AVERAGE 40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH...HIGHEST IN THE ROCHESTER AREA AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE
6 AM TO NOON TIME PERIOD IN THE ROCHESTER AREA...AND 9 AM TO 2 PM
AROUND WATERTOWN.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

$$

SAGE

000 
WWUS71 KBUF 170124
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
824 PM EST THU FEB 16 2006

...DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THURSDAY 
EVENING WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO OVERNIGHT AND ON TO QUEBEC DURING FRIDAY. THE STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND
SWINGS A SHARP COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
TRACK OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND FAST MOVING LOW IS FAVORABLE FOR
VERY STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-171100-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060217T2100Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
824 PM EST THU FEB 16 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY. 

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INITIALLY
BE RESTRICTED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD AVERAGE AS HIGH AS 45
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...HIGHEST IN THE BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER
CORRIDOR.

THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 AM TO
11 AM TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL. DURING
THIS TIME...THERE WILL BE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED
TREES...LIMBS...POWER LINES AND FLYING DEBRIS...ALONG WITH
NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE A SURGE OF WATER ON THE EASTERN
END OF LAKE ERIE. THIS COULD CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR A FEW
HOURS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ003>008-013-014-171100-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060218T0000Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
824 PM EST THU FEB 16 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY. 

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE RESTRICTED MAINLY
TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...LIKE THE BRISTOL HILLS AND ALONG THE BLACK
RIVER VALLEY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD AVERAGE 40 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 65 MPH...HIGHEST IN THE ROCHESTER AREA AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 6 AM TO
NOON TIME PERIOD IN THE ROCHESTER AREA...AND 9 AM TO 2 PM AROUND
WATERTOWN.

IN THE ROCHESTER AREA...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT
THE MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL. DURING THIS TIME...THERE
WILL BE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES...LIMBS...POWER
LINES AND FLYING DEBRIS...ALONG WITH NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

$$

TMA

000 
WWUS71 KBUF 170832
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
332 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2006

...DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY TODAY...

.A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING 
AND REPLACE RECORD WARMTH WITH MIDWINTER CHILL. THIS CHANGE WILL BE 
USHERED IN BY VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WHICH MAY EXCEED 40 MPH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR A FEW HOURS. A FEW GUSTS MAY TOP 60
MPH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.



NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-171645-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060217T2100Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
332 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

RECORD WARMTH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY MIDWINTER
CHILL AS A SHARP COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS ABRUPT CHANGE WILL BE USHERED IN BY VERY STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL AVERAGE 35 TO 50 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW GUSTS COULD TOP 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN
THE BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER CORRIDOR. SUCH WINDS CAN RESULT IN
DAMAGE.

THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 AM TO 11 
AM TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL 
ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL. DURING THIS 
TIME...THERE WILL BE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED 
TREES...LIMBS...POWER LINES AND FLYING DEBRIS...ALONG WITH NUMEROUS 
POWER OUTAGES.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE A SURGE OF WATER ON THE EASTERN
END OF LAKE ERIE. THIS COULD CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR A FEW
HOURS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR 
UPDATES. LATEST INFORMATION IS ALWAYS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV.BUFFALO.






$$

NYZ003>008-013-014-171645-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060218T0000Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
332 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO WEST FOLLOWING THE 
PASSAGE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO 
THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS COULD AVERAGE 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP 
TO 60 MPH...HIGHEST IN THE ROCHESTER AREA AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 7 AM TO 1 
PM PERIOD AROUND ROCHESTER...AND 10 AM TO 3 PM AROUND WATERTOWN.

IN THE ROCHESTER AREA...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT
THE MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL. DURING THIS TIME...THERE
WILL BE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES...LIMBS...POWER
LINES AND FLYING DEBRIS...ALONG WITH NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR 
UPDATES. LATEST INFORMATION IS ALWAYS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV.BUFFALO.



$$
SFM

000 
WWUS71 KBUF 171513
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1013 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2006

...DAMAGING WINDS HAVE RAKED THE REGION...

.A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED OUR REGION THIS MORNING PRODUCED
NUMEROUS STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH SUBSIDING WINDS IS EXPECTED FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WARNING CRITERIA WINDS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED OVER THE EIGHT WESTERN COUNTIES. THE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED THERE. WARNING CRITERIA WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES.

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-171615-
/O.CAN.KBUF.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060217T2100Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1013 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. WARNING CRITERIA WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

IT WILL STILL BE NOTICEABLY WINDY THOUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING.

$$

NYZ003-004-013-014-171900-
/O.EXT.KBUF.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060217T1900Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA
1013 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING. EXPECT WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST IN THE 50 TO 60 MPH
RANGE. THESE WINDS HAVE ALREADY CAUSED A LOT OF DAMAGE. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DANGER FROM FALLING TREE LIMBS...TREES AND POWER LINES.
ONE DEATH HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN MONROE COUNTY.

WINDS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY 2 PM.

$$

NYZ005>008-172100-
/O.EXT.KBUF.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060217T2100Z/
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...
LOWVILLE
1013 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING. EXPECT WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST IN THE 50 TO 65 MPH
RANGE. THESE WINDS HAVE ALREADY CAUSED A LOT OF DAMAGE. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DANGER FROM FALLING TREE LIMBS...TREES AND POWER LINES.

WINDS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY 4 PM.

$$

SAGE

000
WWUS71 KBUF 172048
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
348 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2006

...DAMAGING WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK...

A DEEP AND POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION TODAY IS NOW PULLING AWAY ACROSS THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC. AS
A RESULT THE WINDS HAVE BEEN SUBSIDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO DURING THE COURSE OF THIS EVENING.

NYZ005>008-172200-
/O.CAN.KBUF.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060217T2100Z/
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...
LOWVILLE
348 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. 

WHILE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINING DAYLIGHT HOURS...THE DAMAGING WINDS FROM EARLIER TODAY
HAVE ENDED. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

$$

RSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
940 AM EST WED FEB 15 2006

.UPDATE...

A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL MEAN A VERY MILD
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 50. H8
TEMPS CLOSE TO ZERO C WILL EASILY SUPPORT THESE READINGS...SO HAVE
BOOSTED MAX TEMPS UPWARDS BY AT LEAST TWO CATS FOR THE WHOLE REGION.

SAT LOOPS ALSO SHOW THAT THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IS FAIRLY THIN...SO
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER.

THE ONLY OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS IN REGARDS TO FRIDAY. LAST NIGHTS 06Z
MODEL RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING
A STRENGTHENING LOW UP THE LENGTH OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING.

CLASSIC WIND STORMS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK (AND ESP THE IAG FRONTIER)
HAVE THE FOLLOWING COMPONENTS. THEY INVOLVE DEEP STORMS THAT...
   ...ARE USUALLY STRENGTHENING AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE AREA
   ...MOVE PARALLEL TO LAKE ERIE AND PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF
         BUFFALO (USUALLY ON A DTZ-YYZ LINE)
   ...ARE NOT CLOSE OFF (OPEN WAVES ALLOW FOR THE ISALLOBARIC
         COMPONENT TO BE INVOLVED)
   ...INCLUDE STRONG WELL ALIGNED WINDS (>50 KTS) ALOFT
   ...INVOLVE STRONG COLD ADVECTION

IF GUIDANCE IS ACCURATE...THE FRIDAY STORM SYSTEM WILL INCLUDE ALL
OF THE ABOVE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WILL ALSO ENABLE FUNNELLING
UP LAKE ERIE TO BE FACTORED INTO THE MIX...SO HIGH WINDS ARE LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKE A THREAT FOR FRIDAY.

WHILE THERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT DESCRIBING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONG WINDS...WE WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING A HIGH
WIND WATCH BY 12 NOON. WE WANT TO SEE SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE
BEFORE MAKING THAT DETERMINATION THOUGH...SO PLEASE BE PATIENT.

THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF RECENT WEEKS...INCLUDING THOSE FROM
TODAY AND THURS...WILL MEAN THAT THE GROUND WILL NOT BE FROZEN AS IT
USUALLY IS IN MID FEBRUARY. THIS WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE THE RISK
FOR DOWNED TREES.

RSH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY HOWEVER GIVEN ITS
WEAKENING STATE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ONLY INCLUDE A CHC POPS
ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TODAY. TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY
INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION...SNOWCOVER FROM RECENT LAKE
SNOWS WILL ONLY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. A DEEP
LOWER PRESSURE CENTER IS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AND MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SOMEWHAT EASED THE CONCERNS FOR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS
TRENDING TOWARD WARMER SOLUTIONS. YESTERDAYS 12Z NAM BUKIT SHOWED
ALMOST A HALF INCH OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LASTEST GFS
KART BUFKIT SHOWS JUST A BRIEF MIX FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...WHILE THE
NAM NOW HAS PCPN AS ALL RAIN. BOTH SHOW A COMBINATION OF A MORE
SHALLOW, WEAKER NORTHEAST FLOW AND STRONGER, LOWER SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THUS EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL
STILL INCLUDE THE THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HWO/SPS, HOWEVER
BACKING OFF A BIT ON THE HAZARD.

STILL THE MOST IMPRESSIVE UPCOMING WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE NOT BEEN MENTIONED AT THIS TIME. WITH THE LOW CROSSING LAKE
ONTARIO OR JUST TO THE NORTH WE WILL BE IN A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR STRONG WINDS. CONSIDERING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE VERY
STRONG ISALLOBARIC SIGNATURE...A HIGH WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE. AGAIN
NO HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT WE WILL ALSO MENTION THE WIND
POTENTIAL IN HWO/SPS.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE SNOW DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A FAST
MOVING AND STRENGTHENING SHORT WAVE THAT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS EASTER
CANADA.  BECAUSE THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE OFF LAKE ERIE.  HPC TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK JUST A BIT HIGH FOR THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL AND
I BROUGHT THEM DOWN A BIT IN THE FORECAST.

AS WE GET INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS A RATHER BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF SETS UP ACROSS EASTER NORTH AMERICA. THE
FLOW AROUND THE RATHER FLAT BASE OF THIS BROAD TROF WILL BE QUITE
STRONG, LIMITING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF ANY SHORT WAVE
ACTIVITY THAT MOVES EASTWARD WITHIN THAT FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

WHILE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN MARKEDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 00Z
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AS A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 10-20 KNOTS ON BOTH LAKES. THESE WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY
AND STRENGTHEN TO 15-25 KTS AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH DURING
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL TURN WESTERLY AND INCREASE
TO STRONG GALES BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. DURING FRIDAY...GUSTS REACHING/
EXCEEDING STORM FORCE WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LAKE ONTARIO FOR FRIDAY.

&&

UPDATE...RSH
SHORT TERM...JML
LONG TERM...TAN
AVIATION/MARINE...JJR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
426 AM EST WED FEB 15 2006

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-160930-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
426 AM EST WED FEB 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.  A STRONG LOW IS FORECAST TO
TRACK JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY AND DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-SLZ022-024-160930-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
426 AM EST WED FEB 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND THE ADJOINING WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL DEEPEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST...REACHING CENTRAL NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. DURING
THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL SPREAD INCREASINGLY WARMER AIR ALOFT...WITH
COLDER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE DURING THE MORNING.
THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME FREEZING
RAIN...WITH SOME ICING POSSIBLE DURING THURSDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING...CHANGING THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO JUST PLAIN RAIN.

DURING FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL SWING A SHARP COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH STRONG WINDS USHERING IN A RETURN TO DRAMATICALLY COLDER
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE LOW PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH...THE
WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DAMAGE FRIDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD BEGIN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN OSWEGO
COUNTY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE AIR WILL STAY COLD ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE LAKE SNOWS GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ042>045-062>065-160930-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-

322 AM EST WED FEB 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND THE ADJOINING WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT FROM OHIO ACROSS
LAKE ERIE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LAKES EARLY FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF