Flash Flood Warning 84, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 082244
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
345 PM MST THU SEP 8 2005

AZC003-082330-
COCHISE AZ-
345 PM MST THU SEP 8 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 430 PM MST FOR SOUTHWESTERN
COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 340 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO 1.25 
INCHES. LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED 
TO SIERRA VISTA...CHARLESTON AND HUACHUCA CITY. THIS STORM IS MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

.

LAT...LON 3146 11043 3144 11026 3157 11012 3175 11019
      3171 11038

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 082326
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
425 PM MST THU SEP 8 2005

AZC003-082335-
COCHISE AZ-
425 PM MST THU SEP 8 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY EXPIRES AT
430 PM MST...

THE RAINFALL RUNOFF FROM THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED VERY 
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY...INCLUDING BOTH 
HUACHUCA CITY AND SIERRA VISTA...HAS HAD SUFFICIENT TIME TO DRAIN 
INTO NORMALLY DRY WASHES. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING 
HAS SUBSIDED. 

HOWEVER...MOTORISTS SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE WET 
ROADWAYS...AND NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS THROUGH ROADWAY DIPS AND OTHER 
LOW LYING AREAS FILLED WITH RUNNING WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.

LAT...LON 3146 11043 3144 11026 3157 11012 3175 11019
      3171 11038

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST THU SEP 8 2005

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL
MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BY FRIDAY A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND DRAW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM MEXICO...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EVENTUALLY...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP FOR A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
STARTED...MAINLY IN CENTRAL COCHISE...EASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
GIVEN MORNING CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INVERSION ALOFT. STILL...WITH A
MINUS 6 LI FROM THE 12Z KTUS SOUNDING...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET
THINGS STARTED. AREA DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN A BIT...INTO THE UPPER
50S BUT GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE...WILL BE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR ACTIVITY. LOOKING AT PW VALUES FROM BOTH GOES SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE 12Z KTUS SOUNDING...VALUES RANGING OVER THE AREA
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
PRESENT.

MODELS HAVE LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MAKING ITS WAY INTO CALIFORNIA BY
TOMORROW MORNING. INITIALLY...THIS LOW WILL DRAW UP MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK TO BE THE BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
SE AZ FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM OPENS UP INTO A
TROF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL CA. AS THIS TROF MOVES
EASTWARD STARTING SATURDAY MORNING...ARIZONA WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST. THIS PROCESS LOOKS TO BE A SLOW ONE THOUGH...AS WESTERN
DESERTS START DRYING OUT SATURDAY MORNING AND MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA NOT DRYING OUT SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRETTY
MUCH SCOURED OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY
MORNING. THUS...POPS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW ARE THE HIGHEST FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THEN STEADILY DECREASING AS TIME PROGRESSES. 500MB
HEIGHTS STEADILY FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE TROF...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA STARTING TOMORROW
AND REMAINING THERE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LONG
RANGE PROGS HAVE ANOTHER TROF SINKING DOWN THE CA COAST FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PRETTY UNEVENTFUL.

TWEAKED POPS UPWARD IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR TOMORROW
TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND MOVED CHANCES OF
PRECIP OUT QUICKER IN THE LONG TERM. OTHER THAN THAT...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SMR

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON