Flash Flood Warning 83, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 080056
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
552 PM MST WED SEP 7 2005

AZC009-080200-
GRAHAM AZ-
552 PM MST WED SEP 7 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 700 PM MST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
GRAHAM COUNTY INCLUDING THE MOUNT GRAHAM BURN AREAS...

AT 546 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE MOUNT 
GRAHAM BURN AREAS. RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES HAVE 
OCCURRED DURING THE PAST HOUR. AUTOMATED RAIN GAGES AT MARIJILDA 
CANYON INDICATED .94 INCH OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE 515 PM MST. ALSO 
AUTOMATED RAIN GAGES AT DEADMAN CANYON INDICATED 1.82 INCHES HAD 
FALLEN SINCE 500 PM MST. THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT 
FLOWS IN THE MOUNT GRAHAM BURN AREAS AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS 
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3263 10986 3259 10971 3269 10972 3278 10971
      3276 10981 3272 10988 3267 10989

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
126 PM MST WED SEP 7 2005

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES PROVIDING ARIZONA WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY...A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PULL MOISTURE UP
FROM MEXICO RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EVENTUALLY...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR A DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...LAPS HOURLY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDICES EAST OF A LINE FROM FLORENCE SOUTH TO THREE POINTS AND
ARIVACA. THIS AREA WHICH INCLUDES TUCSON WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF
ACTION THIS EVENING IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS. PHX RELEASED AN 18Z
UPPER-AIR BALLOON WHICH STILL SHOWED A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ABOVE 15KFT. THIS INVERSION SHOULD SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOWER CENTRAL AND WESTERN DESERTS THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL
INCREASE VALLEY POPS AS FAR WEST AS THREE POINTS AND ARIVACA ON THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. BASED ON PHX INVERTED V PROFILE...STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN SPOTS. AS YOU GO
FARTHER EAST...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PARTS
OF COCHISE...GRAHAM...AND GREENLEE COUNTIES THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS SHOWED THE UPPER HIGH CONSOLIDATING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY THURSDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. ALL MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY...THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INLAND CREATING A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED AND LONGER LIVED THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT
FORECAST REFLECTS THE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EJECTS FARTHER EAST WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH MAINTAINS A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS BROAD LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH SPREADS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR A DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1022 AM MST WED SEP 7 2005

AZZ019-029>035-081406-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-COCHISE COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
1022 AM MST WED SEP 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY...A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PULL MOISTURE UP
FROM MEXICO RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DISCUSSION...IT WAS LOOKING LIKE A SIMILAR SITUATION TO
YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE AIRMASS REMAINED MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM...AND COCHISE COUNTIES WITH DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR SITUATED OVER WESTERN PIMA INTO YUMA COUNTY. THE
ONLY CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WAS THAT THE MOISTURE AXIS HAD SHIFTED A
LITTLE BIT FARTHER WEST WHICH WILL PLACE EASTERN PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES IN A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND BY
FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS SCOURING ANY
REMAINING MOISTURE OUT OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.