Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 030022
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
520 PM MST TUE AUG 2 2005

AZC003-030130-
COCHISE AZ-
520 PM MST TUE AUG 2 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 630 PM MST FOR SOUTHWESTERN
COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 520 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE HEREFORD AREA EARLIER. THIS RAINFALL IS 
RUNNING OFF AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREA LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HEREFORD.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...IF YOU ENCOUNTER PONDED WATER OR A FLOWING 
WASH...NO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS...TURN AROUND.

LAT...LON 3135 11042 3135 11004 3158 11003 3157 11043

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SCHAFFNER

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 030046
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
545 PM MST TUE AUG 2 2005

AZC003-030052-
COCHISE AZ-
545 PM MST TUE AUG 2 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 542 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE 
RAINFALL HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY. THE 
COCHISE COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT HAS INDICATED THAT NO FLOODING 
PROBLEMS OR ROAD CLOSURES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE 
COUNTY. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HAS 
BEEN CANCELLED. 

NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW. MOTORISTS ARE 
STILL URGED TO USE CAUTION. 

LAT...LON 3135 11042 3135 11004 3158 11003 3157 11043

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
112 PM MST TUE AUG 2 2005

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...KEEPING SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA IN A MONSOON FLOW PATTERN. THERE WILL BE DAY-TO-DAY
VARIATIONS...BUT IN GENERAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL ENOUGH
FOR A DAILY BOUT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAN BE EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM WISE TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. SO FAR...RADAR HAS
BEEN SHOWING MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SANTA
CRUZ...COCHISE...AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. THE STEERING FLOW WAS FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. THEREFORE...MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TRACKING WESTWARD THIS EVENING OFF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN LONGER
LIVING MULTICELL STORMS...SO WOULD EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF A LARGE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO MEXICO THIS
EVENING. IF THIS HAPPENS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST MODELS KEEP THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WAS PROGGED TO
SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD POSSIBLY ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO RESULT IN HIGH RH
VALUES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN
AREAS...WHERE SOME TEMPORARY DRYING (ALBEIT SLIGHT) HAS TAKEN PLACE
AT THE SURFACE. A FAVORABLE MONSOON FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
AFTER TODAY.
&&

.AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.CLIMATE.....JULY HIGHLIGHTS...
...ALL-TIME WARMEST MONTH ON RECORD...
...WARMEST AND 11TH DRIEST JULY ON RECORD...
...2ND LATEST START TO THE ANNUAL MONSOON...
...LONGEST STRETCH WITH HIGHS OF 100 DEGREES OR GREATER...
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...JD
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...CS

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1215 PM MST TUE AUG 2 2005

AZZ019-029>035-031900-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1215 PM MST TUE AUG 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA...ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SYNOPSIS...PLENTY OF MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS FROM THE WESTERN
DESERTS TO THE CHIRICAHUAS. LESS CLOUDINESS TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN
MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS REGION WIDE. STORMS WILL PROPAGATE OFF
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE STRONGLY HEATED LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...WHILE SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...15-25 KT OF EASTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW FLOWING BELOW FOUR CORNERS HIGH MAY INCREASE THREAT
OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH GUSTY
WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES INDICATE GENERALLY PULSE CELLS BUT A FEW MULTICELLULAR
STORMS MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR INTERSECTING
OUTFLOWS. AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...DUE TO SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT...WITH ELEVATED CONCERNS OVER SANTA CRUZ AND PIMA
COUNTIES WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE OCCURED THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THE CHANCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SHOEMAKER