Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
305 AM CST MON JAN 3 2005

DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND IS SURE TO STALL OUT SOME TIME SOON AS THE
SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS RUNS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AT THE PRESENT...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR MIAMI OK TO JUST SOUTH OF THE TULSA METRO
AREA AND THEN TO NEAR ARDMORE. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50...WHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

THE MOST PRESSING ISSUE AT THIS TIME IS THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE BEEN IN THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH RANGE WITH SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES. THIS ON TOP OF THE RAIN
RECEIVED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL SATURATE THE GROUND PRETTY WELL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SERIES
OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
LIFT ALREADY BEING PRODUCED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA.
WOULD EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS TEMPERATURES....WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY QUITE A
BIT TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE MODELS ARE HAVING A HORRIBLE
TIME HANDLING THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS THAT IS OOZING ACROSS THE
AREA. NOT SURE I TRUST MOS TEMPS FROM ANY OF THE MODELS AFTER TODAY
AS WELL...SINCE THEY INITIALIZED SO POORLY. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PULLS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    52   43   48   38 / 100   80   90   90
FSM    65   57   63   58 / 100   80   80   70
MLC    65   62   61   57 / 100   80   80   60
BVO    44   35   44   28 / 100   80  100   90
FYV    60   55   58   53 / 100   80   90   70
BYV    60   53   56   52 / 100   80   90   70
MKO    61   54   56   53 / 100   80   90   90
MIO    50   37   46   38 / 100   80   90   90
F10    57   54   54   51 /  90   80   90   90
HHW    67   61   65   60 / 100   80   60   40

FORECAST ID= 10

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 400 AM CST MONDAY UNTIL 600 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR ZONES ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011...ARZ019>020...ARZ029.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 400 AM CST MONDAY UNTIL 600 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR ZONES OKZ049...OKZ053>076.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CST MON JAN 3 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 AM CST MON JAN 3 2005

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR MIAMI TO JUST
SOUTH OF TULSA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF
LATER THIS MORNING.

ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AND RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
LIKELY...PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

WHILE A MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT GROUPS
SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY DEVELOP
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL INFORMATION