Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 132150
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
444 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

KSC045-087-132345-
JEFFERSON-DOUGLAS-
444 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR DOUGLAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

AT 444 PM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED SEVERAL STREETS
AND HIGHWAYS IN THE LAWRENCE AREA WERE STILL UNDER WATER. ALTHOUGH
RAINFALL RATES HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO NEAR 1 INCH ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH 6 PM.
THIS WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE CURRENT FLOODING OR SLOW ITS RECESSION. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAWRENCE...BALDWIN CITY...CLINTON...EUDORA...LECOMPTON...WILLIAMSTOWN
AND CLINTON LAKE.

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 191 AND 206.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3897 9519 3896 9518 3897 9512 3896 9510
      3897 9506 3875 9506 3874 9549 3902 9548
      3905 9546 3915 9518

$$

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 132348
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

KSC045-087-132351-
JEFFERSON-DOUGLAS-
645 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR DOUGLAS AND SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON 
COUNTIES EXPIRED AT 645 PM CDT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORT WATER LEVELS ARE RECEDING ACROSS 
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS DOUGLAS AND 
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 8 PM...IT SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH 
TO CREATE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING. SOME PONDING OF WATER IN LOW 
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING 
HOWEVER.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO ANY AREA WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3897 9519 3896 9518 3897 9512 3896 9510
      3897 9506 3875 9506 3874 9549 3902 9548
      3905 9546 3915 9518

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND WHEN THEY WILL END CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM THIS MORNING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM
YESTERDAY. 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PLUM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...THERE ARE
SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE MAIN SFC FRONT
SEEMS TO BE LOCATED FROM THE OK PANHANDLE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KS...THEN OVER INTO SOUTHERN IA. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP THIS
MORNING HAS FORMED ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE 850 FRONT NEAR THE
NEB STATE LINE.

THINK THAT TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN TIMING OF THE
PRECIP. THINK PRECIP ALONG THE 850 FRONT WILL FALL APART THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER WITH SOME SPOTTY SUNSHINE TODAY...INSTABILITY
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS SOUTH OF OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES OR A SECONDARY FRONT NOW MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NEB
PANHANDLE. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER AND CAA ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES...HOLDING HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S. FOR TONIGHT...AM
CONCERNED THAT THE 850 FRONT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND HELP PRECIP DEVELOP SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. THEREFORE
HELD ONTO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. DID NOT GO AS COOL AS
GUIDANCE THINKING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL HELP MODIFY TEMPS.

THE MODELS ARE NOT PUSHING THE FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS BEFORE FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE
SOME GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION OVER THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT
MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING THE STALLED FRONT OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. DECIDED TO KEEP LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING. ALSO HELD ONTO CHANCE
POPS DURING THE DAY MONDAY OVER EAST CENTRAL KS IN CASE THE FRONT
DOES HANG UP ACROSS IN SOUTHEAST KS.

FORECAST TEMPS SEEM IN THE BALLPARK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. 850
TEMPS AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST THAT THERE IS NOT A GREAT
BIG CHANGE IN AIRMASSES. KEPT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S FOR SUNDAY
THINKING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN. THESE MAY BE A TAD
COOL IF THE SUN BREAKS OUT THOUGHT.

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AFTER MONDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WOLTERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
603 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-141115-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
603 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST...NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO DEADLY LIGHTNING...THE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE RAINFALL
COULD COME DOWN FAST ENOUGH TO CAUSE PONDING OF WATER OR MINOR
STREET FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

WOLTERS