Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 010107
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
807 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

KSC045-087-139-177-197-010300-
JEFFERSON-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-DOUGLAS-OSAGE-
807 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
OSAGE...DOUGLAS...WABAUNSEE...SHAWNEE AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON
COUNTIES...

AT 800 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE WARNED AREA. 
RADAR INDICATED RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES HAVE BEEN COMMON THIS 
EVENING. AT SCRANTON 3.8 INCHES OF RAIN WAS REPORTED BY A STORM 
SPOTTER TRHOUGH ABOUT 8 PM. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...RURAL 
ROADS...INTERSECTIONS WILL CONTINUE. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAWRENCE...TOPEKA...OSKALOOSA...ALMA...SCRANTON...OVER BROOK... 
CARBONDALE...EUDORA...DOVER...LECOMPTON...PAXICO...PERRY...SILVER 
LAKE...PERRY LAKE...CLINTON LAKE AND GRANTVILLE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND...AWAY FROM RISING WATER.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3875 9633 3875 9597 3874 9507 3895 9507
      3893 9518 3927 9519 3913 9604 3915 9637
      3903 9636 3900 9645 3886 9645

$$

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 010254
FFSTOP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
954 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

KSC045-087-139-177-197-010310-
JEFFERSON-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-DOUGLAS-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-
954 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING EXPIRES AT 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN 
OSAGE...DOUGLAS...FRANKLIN...WABAUNSEE...SHAWNEE AND SOUTHERN 
JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED OR MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED COUNTIES 
AND THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING HAS 
ENDED. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 PM CDT AND 
NOT BE EXTENDED. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER UNTIL AROUND 
MIDNIGHT.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND...AWAY FROM RISING WATER.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3875 9633 3875 9597 3874 9507 3895 9507
      3893 9518 3927 9519 3913 9604 3915 9637
      3903 9636 3900 9645 3886 9645
LAT...LON 3839 9550 3839 9507 3873 9507 3874 9549

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
412 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTTERM CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER EARLY TONIGHT...THEN FOCUS
SHIFTS TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MAIN
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF JET OVER THE CWA.  AT THE SURFACE...BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.
PROFILERS SHOWING GOOD IN FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY.  THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHED FOR A TIME AT LATE MORNING BUT A LITTLE AFTERNOON HEATING
AND UPPER SUPPORT FUELED RAPID DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.  STORM ENVIRONMENT HAS CAPE VALUES IN THE 2 TO 3
THOUSAND J/KG RANGE TO ALONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 50 KT
RANGE.  HAVE HAD REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.   EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE SLIPPING SOUTHEAST
WITH THE FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE DURING THE EVENING. WILL
KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 35 AFTER MIDNIGHT...ENDING BY LATE NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO NEAR 65 SOUTH.

ON FRIDAY...SOME RELIEF IN CONVECTION AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
BRIEFLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA.  FLOW NORTHWEST ALOFT BUT NO IMPULSES
INDICATED AT THIS TIME.  NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TURNING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING THROUGH PRECEDED BY SOME WARM ADVECTION.
WILL KEEP GOING 20 POPS FOR WESTERN COUNTIES AND EXPAND TO EASTERN
PORTION OF CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  IMPULSE SLIPS EAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY ...SO DRY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90. FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW
LAYERS AS LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS.  WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS
ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR NORTH
CENTRAL.  WARM ADVECTION LIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY...WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS FOR SUNDAY AM MAINLY NORTH OF I70...DRY FOR AFTERNOON.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST GETS COMPLICATED BY
TIMING OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES COMING OUT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVES. MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO BUT PLACEMENT OF THE IMPULSES AND FRONT DIFFER.  LEANING
TOWARD 00Z GFS WHICH SHOWS ONE IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY ON JULY 4TH.  ECMWF HAS FEATURE BUT NOT AS STRONG.  LITTLE
MORE STRONGER FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ON BOTH MODELS.
BETTER LIFT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA CLOSER TO BOUNDARY THUS
WILL GO 20 POPS SOUTH TO 30 POPS NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LOWS MID
TO UPPER 60S...HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES.

UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH GFS
STILL SHOWING SOME POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY.  ECMWF
GOES TO NORTHWEST FLOW BUT NOT AS DISTINCT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
GFS DEEPENS LOW TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY.  LEANING TOWARD DRY
FORECAST FOR THESE DAYS GIVEN MODEL DISCREPANCIES.  GFS COOLING H850
MB TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 16 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE WITH ECMWF ABOUT 4
DEGREES WARMER.  WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS
MIDDLE 60S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PF/DR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
421 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-011000-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
421 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS OVER EAST CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST
KANSAS...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A VALLEY FALLS TO COUNCIL GROVE
LINE.  LARGE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. AND ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISHING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUNDAY
MORNING.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE OFF AND ON
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
TIME HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A VALLEY
FALLS TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
644 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     HAIL             5 W BUSHONG             38.64N 96.35W
06/30/2005  1.00 INCH        LYON               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

36

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
650 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     HAIL             5 S OVERBROOK           38.71N 95.56W
06/30/2005  1.00 INCH        OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

36

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
655 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             6 N HERINGTON           38.76N 96.94W
06/30/2005  1.75 INCH        DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
657 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     HAIL             WOODBINE                38.80N 96.96W
06/30/2005  0.75 INCH        DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

36

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
701 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             POMONA                  38.61N 95.45W
06/30/2005  1.00 INCH        FRANKLIN           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ALSO REPORTS OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS IN POMONA.

&&

36

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
704 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     HAIL             4 E POMONA              38.61N 95.38W
06/30/2005  1.00 INCH        FRANKLIN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

36