Tornado Warning 6, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS52 KTBW 262136
SVSTBW

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
534 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2005

FLC055-262200-
/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-050526T2200Z/
HIGHLANDS-
534 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2005

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES FOR NORTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY
UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 534 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
TORNADO NEAR LAKE JOSEPHINE...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
  LAKE JOSEPHINE.
  SEBRING.
  SPRING LAKE.

IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE INTO A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST 
RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH...OR LOW SPOT...AND COVER 
YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

&&

LAT...LON 2750 8156 2728 8156 2737 8124 2760 8128

$$

25

000 
WWUS52 KTBW 262159
SVSTBW

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2005

FLC055-262208-
/O.EXP.KTBW.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-050526T2200Z/
HIGHLANDS-
600 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2005

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY EXPIRED AT
600 PM EDT...

AT 558 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THE TORNADO
HAD DISSIPATED...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS WERE STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 2750 8156 2728 8156 2737 8124 2760 8128

$$

25

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2005

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-SAT)...UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OFF NORTHEAST U.S.
COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH SETTING UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
FLORIDA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PENINSULA FRIDAY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY AS NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

FOR TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WIND DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA.  SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO MAINLY THE 60S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO A MORE
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AS RIDGE AXIS SINKS SOUTHWARD ALLOWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK NORTH WITH A RETURN TO THE WARM HUMIDITY
CONDITIONS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL NOT
BE THAT DEEP AND NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZES
SO ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVER EASTERN HALF OF PENINSULA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.  TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...
EXCEPT 5 TO 10 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST THANKS TO THE SEA BREEZE...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S

&&

.LONG TERM (SAT NGT-THU)...LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN  DISAGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO LARGE-SCALE FEATURES...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ONCE
AGAIN QUITE LOW.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIP SOUTH AS 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
OFF AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE DGEX SUGGESTS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
WILL ARRIVE IN NEW ENGLAND AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...PIECES OF ENERGY DROP SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALLOWING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO REACH NORTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. IN CONTRAST...THE 12Z GFS HANGS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER
LOUISIANA ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO A POSITION OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS BRINGS A
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH
SLIDES THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE VAST RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES
IN THE GFS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILL RELY HEAVILY ON THE
DGEX SOLUTION.

EVEN WITH THE WEAKER TROUGH SOLUTION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL ALLOW ACTIVE CONVECTION IN DEEP MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS DRIER CONDITIONS COMING IN
ON WEDNESDAY. OUR GRIDS CURRENTLY DEPICT HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS
TIME SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE THERE.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAIN MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD BE TO EAST WITH
JUST CLIMO RAIN CHANCES...BASICALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT DURING AFTERNOON
HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70 88 72 88 / 00 00 00 00
FMY  70 90 71 90 / 10 20 20 00
GIF  68 90 71 92 / 10 20 20 10
SRQ  68 86 70 85 / 00 00 00 00
BKV  63 89 64 89 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...PRC
LONG TERM....EJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
426 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-261530-
CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER-
426 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NATURE COAST.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:
A DRIER AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO THE NATURE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW LOCATED NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THIS DRIER AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...THUS NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE LACK OF A GOOD FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL
KEEP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW SIDE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINS...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

FLZ050>052-055>057-060>062-065-261530-
CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-
POLK-SARASOTA-
426 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:
A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE ALONG
WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST
AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

AT THE PRESENT TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER
INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL RESIDE. WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND OR HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. IN
ADDITION HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS
AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
WILL BE CONFINED TO INTERIOR SECTIONS AS THE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WIND FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN GULF WILL INCREASE CHANCES
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAINS...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

JCM