Tornado Warning 23, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
250 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...WILMA THEN WINTER ARE STILL ON TRACK...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...NOT MUCH MORE NEEDS TO BE
DISCUSSED THAT HASNT ALREADY BEEN SO.  AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS OF
ROUGH CONDITIONS...THE DOOR OPENS FOR UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY THE RELIEF MANY OF US HAVE BEEN WAITING
FOR DURING THIS RATHER LONG SUMMER.  THOUGH HURRICANE SEASON RUNS
THROUGH NOVEMBER 30...YOU CAN PUT A FORK IN THIS ONE AS WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET FOLLOWING THIS VIGOROUS COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER OR MID 70S...WHICH IS VERY HOSTILE
FOR ANY STORMS TO SURVIVE AS OCTOBER MOVES INTO NOVEMBER.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE ONLY ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS THE THREAT
FOR OUTER BAND TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR
SO. SUNSHINE HAS WARMED AREAS INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH ZONES...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SWELTERING MID 70S AND
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION...THERE IS
CONCERN FOR QUICK SPIN-UP TORNADOES TO DEVELOP AS THE OUTER BANDS
MOVE ONSHORE.  HELICITY VALUES RISE TO MORE THAN 500 J/KG BY 00Z
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA.  WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED...IN FACT EXPECT...A TORNADO WATCH IN A FEW HOURS
FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA AND EXPECT A FEW TO FORM
WELL AHEAD OF THE CORE OF WILMA.  ZONE TEXT WILL INCLUDE THIS
POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 KT AND GRADUALLY
ACCELERATING FROM A SPOT NOW 335 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS.
LANDFALL IS STILL ON TARGET FOR 7 TO 8 AM...AND THE WORST IMPACTS
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE STORM ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 6 AM AND 10 AM
(PERHAPS UP TO 11 AM OR NOON FARTHEST EAST) AS STORM WILL BE HAULING
AT AROUND 25 MPH (OR MORE) AT THAT TIME.  VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE TO
WIND FIELD AND ZONE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE INITIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.  FOR MORE INFORMATION ON WIND IMPACTS...CHECK OUT EITHER THE
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WMO CODE WTUS82 KTBW OR OUR INLAND
HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM PRODUCTS (WMO CODE WWUS72).

PLAN NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH.  THE POSSIBLE BAND OF
OVERRUNNING THAT MIGHT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT HAS NOT
MATERIALIZED...AND PROBABLY WONT BASED ON THE LACK OF EVEN LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE FRONT ITSELF.  SO...THESE AREAS
REMAIN LARGELY DRY AND WILL SOAK UP THE EXPECTED 1 TO 3
INCHES...LOCALLY 4 INCHES...WE ARE FORECASTING.  CHARLOTTE AND LEE
ARE UNDER THE GUN FOR THE HIGHEST RAINS...3 TO 5 INCHES AND PERHAPS
6 INCHES IN SPOTS GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. WILL
REFRESH FFA FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS BY 4 PM.

THEREAFTER...THE CHILL SETS IN. AM FORECASTING STEADY/FALLING
TEMPERATURES MON AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WE MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY IN THE
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME PAST STORM PASSAGE...BUT WILL DEAL WITH THAT
LATER TONIGHT.  TUE WILL DAWN WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING PLUMMETED INTO
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT 55 TO 60 NEAR THE WATER (AND WHERE THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER). AND IT WONT GET MUCH WARMER DURING THE DAY
WITH CONTINUE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOST AREAS...LOWER 70S
SOUTH.  HIGH SURF IS A DEFINITE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SUN)...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST U.S.
COAST LIFTS UP TO THE NE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISS. RIVER
VALLEY SLIDES SOUTH...REACHING THE GULF COASTAL STATES BY THU. THIS
HIGH WILL BE REINFORCED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ROTATES TOWARD
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SUN. A DRY COOL CLEAR FORECAST
IS IN PLACE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD BUT THESE WILL BE
MODERATING GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AND MOISTURE INCREASES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LOW
AFTERNOON POPS.

&&

.MARINE...AGAIN...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO RISE AND
WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING AHEAD OF WILMA.  WILL BUMP UP SEAS JUST A
BIT IN THE GRIDS AND TEXT...DROPPING IN SOME 22 FOOT VALUES BASED
ON BUOY 03 TRENDS AND PROPAGATION OF HIGHEST SWELLS INTO THE SOUTH
AND CENTRAL LEGS LATER TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY MONDAY.  THEREAFTER...A
MORE GRADUAL DROP OFF THAN USUAL GIVEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER
(STILL) WARM WATERS.  WILL LIKELY NEED TO REPLACE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL INCREASE WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ABOUT
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INCREASES TO NUMEROUS
LATER TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO
HIGH DISPERSION VALUES MONDAY...BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD
STILL BE ABOVE 50 PERCENT THANKS TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.  WE MAY
APPROACH CRITICAL HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR NATURE COAST
THROUGH INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
HOW LOW THE DEW POINTS FALL ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.  STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 73 51 67 / 90 90 00 00
FMY 77 77 53 72 / 90 90 00 00
GIF 73 73 48 68 / 90 90 00 00
SRQ 76 76 52 69 / 90 90 00 00
BKV 66 68 40 66 / 90 90 00 00

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH INCLUDING THE
  SHORELINES OF SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE...LEE...AND DESOTO.
 TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LONGBOAT KEY NORTH
  INCLUDING THE SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH
  PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...AND LEVY COUNTIES.
 INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
  FOR NON COASTAL AND NON TIDAL SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE...LEE...
  HARDEE... HIGHLANDS AND DESOTO COUNTIES.
 INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
 MONDAY EVENING FOR NO COASTAL AND NON TIDAL MANATEE...
 HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...SUMTER...POLK...AND LEVY
 COUNTIES.
 FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
 MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES.

&&

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM....RKR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
645 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-231600-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
645 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
HURRICANE WILMA WILL APPROACH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT
BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND RAIN ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THESE EFFECTS WILL BEGIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION AS TO THE WINDS...RAINFALL...
TORNADIC AND MARINE THREATS FROM WILMA REFER TO OUR HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WILMA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL COMING TO AN
END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY UP
TO A 8 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR
SWEEPING IN BEHIND WILMA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

PRC