Tornado Warning 19, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS52 KTBW 101126
SVSTBW

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
725 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

FLC115-101130-
/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-050710T1130Z/
SARASOTA-
725 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES FOR SARASOTA COUNTY UNTIL 730 AM 
EDT...

AT 725 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
WATERSPOUT 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SARASOTA...MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.
WATERSPOUTS THAT MOVE ONSHORE BECOME TORNADOES.

THE THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL SARASOTA COUNTY THAT RADAR INDICATED 
WAS PRODUCING A TORNADO HAS MOVED INTO MANATEE COUNTY.

THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
  INDIAN BEACH BY 725 AM EDT.

&&

LAT...LON 2737 8267 2738 8226 2721 8226 2720 8223
      2714 8223 2713 8224 2713 8238 2714 8271

$$

13

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
516 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

AFTER COORD CALL WITH SPC AND SURROUNDING AREA OFFICES HAVE CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH #629 FOR LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...HERNANDO...AND PASCO
COUNTIES. PUBLIC AND MARINE PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY. REST OF
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUE)...IR-SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS POWERFUL
HURRICANE DENNIS NOW A CATEGORY 4 STORM ROUGHLY 200 MILES TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DENNIS
CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST AT
AROUND 14 MPH. 88D RETURNS SHOW NUMEROUS HEAVY RAIN BANDS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING EAST AND SOUTHEAST FROM DENNIS
CENTER WITH THESE BANDS MOVING ONSHORE AND AFFECTING MY COASTAL
ZONES...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG BANDS NOTED MOVING ACROSS FAR EASTERN
HIGHLANDS AND POLK COUNTIES. SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS
WITH THESE BANDS...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS NOTED AS ONE MOVES
INLAND.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT IN MOVING DENNIS
NORTH NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING. DEEP SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF DENNIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE (PWS >2) INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGH POPS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SATELLITE AND 88D DATA THE MET POPS LOOK
WAY TOO LOW...SO WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER/WETTER LOOKING MAV AND WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE CATEGORICAL/LIKELY RANGE FROM THE COAST TO
INLAND AREAS. WITH ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...PLAN TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FA THROUGH TONIGHT. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE WIND
GUSTS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE RAIN BANDS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN WINDS PLAN TO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR INTERIOR ZONES EXPIRE AT 12Z...BUT WILL KEEP WORDING FOR
SOME GUSTINESS IN THE ZONES.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND WINDS...SOUNDING AND VAD WIND PROFILES
SHOW SUFFICIENT SHEAR (GREATEST NORTH OF THE BAY AREA) TO CONTINUE
THE THREAT OF SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS...AND TORNADO WATCH #629 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT TIDES RUNNING SOME 2-4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF OVERWASH EXPECTED DUE TO ROUGH SEA AND BATTERING WAVE ACTION.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON DENNIS...REFER TO OUR HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENT (HLSTBW).

BY LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY THINGS WILL BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN...BUT
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED IN THE WAKE OF DENNIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT POPS IN THE LOW END LIKELY CATEGORY RANGE (60%) WITH SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. ON TUESDAY 593DM UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA WITH ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PENINSULA. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE (PWS >2) WILL
PERSIST AND WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY DUE
TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP...THEN RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NGT - SAT)...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SPLIT ON WHERE
THE REMNANT LOW OF DENNIS WILL END UP. THE DGEX...ECMWF...NOGAPS...
AND THE 00Z GFS INDICATE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
DENNIS AS IT STALLS OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE 18Z GFS...AND
MOST OF THE TPC HURRICANE GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHIFT THE REMNANT LOW SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS KY FROM TUE
NIGHT TO THU NIGHT. THE DIFFERENCE IN OUR FORECAST WILL BE IN THE
TIMING OF EXPECTED PRECIP. WITH THE FORMER SET OF MODELS...WE WOULD
HAVE A SOMEWHAT TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH AFTN AND EARLY EVENING
TSTMS AND SE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE LATTER...THE NRN FA
WOULD SEE SOME LEFTOVER WRLY WINDS AS THE RIDGE AXIS WOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH. THUS THE SHOWERS THAT FORM WOULD MOVE ASHORE EARLIER IN
THE DAY AND PUSH INLAND OVER THE NATURE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH MATCHES UP WITH THE SECOND
SET OF FORECASTS.

BASED ON THIS THINKING...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO BUILD BACK
NORTH ON FRI AND SAT...BACKING WINDS AROUND TO SRLY ALONG THE
NATURE COAST. THUS...HOPEFULLY...WELL BE BACK TO A TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN BY THEN. MAX TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...
WHEREAS MIN TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE ABOVE NEAR THE COAST WITH THE WRLY
WINDS WED AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY REPORTS INDICATE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 23 FT OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE
WILL CONTINUE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND/SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE. THESE STRONG WINDS AND
SEAS ARE CAUSING SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS WITH TIDES NOW
RUNNING 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WITH REPORTS OF SOME OVERWASH IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH TIDES
RUNNING SOME 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY HIGHER ON SOUTHERN
EXPOSERS. ALL MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT TODAY. LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVE ACTION OCCURRING ALONG AREA BEACHES WILL
PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AS WELL AS MODERATE BEACH
EROSION. BY LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AND SUBSIDE AS DENNIS MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...WITH MORE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH DENNIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY...BUT STRONG 20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VERY HIGH DISPERSION INDICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86 78 90 75/ 80 50 60 30
FMY  87 77 92 75/ 80 50 60 30
GIF  86 77 92 76/ 70 50 60 30
SRQ  86 77 88 76/ 80 50 60 30
BKV  86 76 90 74/ 80 60 60 30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER.
 WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY FOR SUMTER...POLK...HARDEE AND
 HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.
 FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT FOR ALL ZONES.

SHORT TERM...MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM...SHARP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-101528-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FORM FROM BONITA BEACH TO
  THE SUWANNEE RIVER...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING FOR
  SUMTER...POLK...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.
...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT FOR ALL ZONES...

POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES
WEST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. DENNIS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...MAKING LANDFALL BY EARLY TONIGHT. ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST THIS MORNING. THESE BANDS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY
SQUALLY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN. AS HURRICANE DENNIS
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE ADJACENT GULF...ADDITIONAL FEEDER
BANDS OF RAIN WITH SQUALLY WINDS WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

WITH THE GROUND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ALREADY
QUITE SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS OF RAIN...AND AREA RIVERS NEAR OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS OR ALONG RIVERS AND FASTER FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
FOR ANY RISES IN WATERS LEVELS TODAY. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED MOVE
TO HIGHER GROUND.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...HURRICANE DENNIS IS PRODUCING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH NORTH
TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE PRODUCING SEAS IN THE
15 TO 20 FOOT RANGE...WITH TIDES RUNNING SOME 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL...POSSIBLY HIGHER ON SOUTHERN EXPOSERS. THESE HIGH WINDS AND
SEAS ARE ALSO PRODUCING LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES AND ROUGH
SURF ALONG AREA BEACHES WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS
AND BEACH EROSION.

A RIP CURRENT IS A 10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL
EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER.

TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES
AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED BEACHES AND
NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE SURF MUCH
ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE RIP
CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ANOTHER METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO LET THE
RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE FORCE
WEAKENS. THEN...SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM THE
CURRENT. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT IF AT ALL POSSIBLE TODAY
UNTIL HURRICANE DENNIS MOVE FURTHER AWAY AND WIND AND SEAS DECREASE.

RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF HURRICANE DENNIS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH THE DAILY SEAS BREEZES WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

JCM