Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2005

Mesoscale Discussion 2321

October 5, 200525 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 5, 2005, 1:12 PM CDT for 25 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 5, 2005, 1:12 PM CDT (18:12 UTC)
Expired: Oct 5, 2005, 5:45 PM CDT
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 25 counties

Benson County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Burke County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Eddy County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Stark County, ND, Towner County, ND, Walsh County, ND, Ward County, ND, Wells County, ND, Williams County, ND

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 571 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 75 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 358 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 614 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 051813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051812 
NDZ000-052245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2321
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT WED OCT 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 051812Z - 052245Z

HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WCNTRL INTO NE ND FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON...WITH RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION
TO VERY STRONG NLY WINDS.

OBSERVATIONAL DATA PORTRAYS OCCLUDING LOW ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
INTO WRN MN. ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE...HEAVY WET SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE/ON SRN
PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. IN SPITE OF MARGINAL
LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE COINCIDENT WITH HIGHEST PRECIP RATES. AMPLE
OMEGA THROUGH DEEPLY SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SNOW RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
HINDERED BY MILD GROUND TEMPS/MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS.

IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WCNTRL/NE ND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...CREATING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AMIDST THE HEAVY WET SNOW. VAD DATA FROM MINOT WSR-88D EFFECTIVELY
SAMPLES 50-65 KT NELY WINDS WITHIN 1-3 KM LAYER...WITH LATEST RUC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THIS CORE OF VERY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER.. 10/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

48919744 48099752 47559935 47070048 46470222 46790299
47270350 48020402 48820324 49060219

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 4, 11:59 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Dunn, Grant, Hettinger, McLean, Mercer and 5 more	4 hr
Oct 5, 5:05 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bottineau, Dunn, McHenry, McLean, Mercer, Mountrail and 5 more	4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2005 Every mesoscale discussion in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.