Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1000 AM PST SAT JAN 8 2005

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...AND SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES. LOCAL STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER DESERTS. DRY WEATHER AND WARMER DAYS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES.

UPDATED FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS...LOCALLY HEAVY THIS MORNING WITH A PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM OFF THE COAST. NO 12Z
NKX SOUNDING DUE TO EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...THE PREVIOUS RUN
HAD A VERY DEEP MOIST LAYER IN STRONG SW FLOW. ONSHORE GRADIENTS
WITH ABOUT 6 MB SAN-TPH.

DEEP MOISTURE IN STRONG SW FLOW THAT HAS A TROPICAL CONNECTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. THE SPEED OF THE FLOW ARE GIVING THE MODELS A
BIT OF TROUBLE WITH THE MASS FIELDS SO THEY WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
PINPOINTING THE PERIODS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP. RADAR AND SATELLITE WILL
BE THE BEST TOOLS FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT...WHERE THERE WILL BE HEAVY SNOW...TODAY AND
MONDAY. THE LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING IN TODAY WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIP. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
DECREASE IN PRECIP RATES MON. THE UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST
FINALLY STARTS TO KICK INLAND TUE. THIS COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL RATES AGAIN WITH THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FT.
GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR ADVISORY STRENGTH AT TIMES IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER DESERTS THROUGH TUE. THE PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO TUE NIGHT. DRIER NNW FLOW DEVELOPS WED. HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
COULD CAUSE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IN THE MORNINGS.

.LONG TERM...RIDGING NEAR THE W COAST WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE
END OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
DAYS. A WEAK UPPER LOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE COULD BRING INCREASING
HI CLOUDS AND A LITTLE COOLING SUN.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FT...SEE LAXWSWSGX.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SEE
LAXFFASGX.

RIVER STATEMENT FOR THE SAN DIEGO RIVER...SEE LAXRVSSGX.

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SAN DIEGO RIVER MONDAY...SEE LAXFLWSGX.

WIND ADVISORY FOR HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND UPPER DESERT UNTIL 330 AM
MONDAY...LAXNPWSGX.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE LAXMWSSGX.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...SEE LAXHWOSGX.

&&

ATKIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
600 AM PST SAT JAN 8 2005

CAZ042-043-048-050-055-056-057-058-060-061-062-091400-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
600 AM PST SAT JAN 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

STRONG MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES...AND SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES. LOCAL STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGH TIDES AND LARGE SURF WILL BRING A THREAT OF COASTAL
FLOODING AND EROSION THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER AND WARMER DAYS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

DUE TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN...THE FOLLOWING HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS
ARE OCCURING...

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SEE LAXWSWSGX.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
SEE LAXFFASGX.

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...
SEE LAXCFWSGX.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING UNTIL 11 AM...
SEE LAXFLSSGX.

RIVER STATEMENT FOR THE SAN DIEGO RIVER...SEE LAXRVSSGX.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE LAXMWSSGX.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...SEE LAXHWOSGX.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SEE LAXWSWSGX.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
SEE LAXFFASGX.

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...
SEE LAXCFWSGX.

RIVER STATEMENT FOR THE SAN DIEGO RIVER...SEE LAXRVSSGX.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE LAXMWSSGX.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...SEE LAXHWOSGX.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
756 AM PST SAT JAN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 SW BIG BEAR CITY     34.16N 116.97W
01/08/2005                   SAN BERNARDINO     CA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MAJOR DEBRIS BLOCKAGE ON HIGHWAY 18 BETWEEN SNOW VALLEY
            AND BIG BEAR DAM. ABT 100 VEHICLES STRANDED.

&&

LAVIS