Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS San Diego, CA

000 
WGUS76 KSGX 231159
FFSSGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
459 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2005

CAC073-231209-
SAN DIEGO CA-
459 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY EXPIRES AT
500 AM PDT...

LAT...LON 3285 11681 3293 11693 3288 11710 3272 11704

$$

MACKECHNIE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
235 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2005

.SYNOPSIS...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...MOST ABUNDANT DURING THE AFTERNOONS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A FLOOD WATCH
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM TODAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. THE MOIST FLOW WILL DECREASE STARTING TUESDAY...SO THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS FREQUENT...AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST PACIFIC COULD BRING AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHT
COOLING LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A RATHER STRONG EASTERLY WAVE...FROM THE REMNANTS OF EMILY...IS
MOVING OVER NORTHWESTERN SONORA/NORTHEASTERN BAJA...AND
THIS...COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS AND HIGH RH
VALUES IN MOST OF THE 1000-500 MB COLUMN...IS RESULTING IN NOCTURNAL
TSTORMS. THE TSTORMS ARE PULSE TYPE AND THUS ARE IN A PATCHY
PATTERN...BUT LOCAL/BRIEF HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING
NEVERTHELESS...THOUGH THE TREND IN THE PAST HOUR HAS BEEN TOWARDS
LESS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS. A FEW TSTORMS HAVE PROPAGATED INTO THE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...THOUGH THIS IS GENERATING MORE
LIGHTNING THAN RAIN.

THIS PATCHY TSTORM PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY...BUT THE
INTENSITIES WILL INCREASE DUE TO AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE IN BETWEEN
THE TSTORMS TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE MTNS/DESERTS TODAY...SO A WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED. DUE TO THE WAVE...EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT AT
500 MB...SO THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SEND SOME OF THE ACTION WEST OF
THE MTNS. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD TSTORMS
IN THE MTNS/DESERTS THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL
FINALLY MOVE OUT TO SEA...BUT THE KEY TO HOW MUCH HEAVY RAIN OCCURS
WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS. IF HIGH CLOUDS ARE TOO HEAVY IN
THE COVERAGE...THEN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD.

MODERATE TO THICK CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP THE MTNS/DESERTS COOLER AT
TIMES WHICH COULD DISRUPT THE SEA BREEZE AND CREATE SOME SURPRISE
HEAT NEAR THE COAST. SO...COASTAL TEMPS WILL BE TOUGH TO PREDICT THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A CURRENT WEAK EDDY...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO PATCHY
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS...COULD KEEP THE COAST COOLER. THUS...I WILL
GENERALLY GO WITH A MODERATE SOLUTION FOR TEMPS...MOSTLY IN THE 80S
NEAR THE COAST WITH 90S IN COASTAL VALLEYS. MORE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
BRING COOLING MID-LATE WEEK...AND A TREND TOWARDS TROUGHING OVER THE
E PAC SHOULD BRING MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
TSTORM ACTIVITY FROM TUE-THU AND BEYOND.

&&

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER ENTIRE AREA. THEY ARE DEVELOPING TO
THE WEST AND WILL BE ON OR NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE WEST TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH TODAY. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. TOPS NEAR 40000 FT OR HIGHER. A COASTAL EDDY
BEGAN LAST NIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER HAS REDEVELOPED WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE COAST. THE EDDY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AND
EVAPORATE BY MID MORNING. SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND ALSO WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POSSIBLE IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...SEE LAXFFASGX.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS...SEE
LAXHWOSGX.
HIGH RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL...SEE LAXSRFSGX.

&&

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION...WHITLOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1245 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2005

CAZ056-058-231100-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
1245 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT.

MODERATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL RATING. THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR
SATURDAY...HIGH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL RATING. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

CAZ055-060-061-062-231100-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
1245 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS
COACHELLA VALLEY
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS
IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT.

MODERATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL RATING. THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...MODERATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL RATING. THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

CAZ048-050-231100-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
400 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS
IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCAL FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED FOR THIS AREA...
HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ042-043-057-231100-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
400 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FOR SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED FOR THIS AREA...
HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NOTE...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NOW INCORPORATES THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL INDEX THAT WAS ISSUED SEPARATELY IN PREVIOUS YEARS.
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INDEX WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK IF IT EXCEEDS THE LOW CATEGORY IN THE FIRST TWO
DAYS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED DAILY AT 4 AM AND 4 PM OR AS
NEEDED THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30.

HORTON/MAXWELL