Flash Flood Warning 96, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
550 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MAINTAIN STRONG
TO SEVERE INTENSITY FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF
THE 250 MB JET WAS AIDING THE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MIXED LAYER CAPES WERE NEAR 2000 J/KG
WITH VALUES NEAR 3500 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND WALL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REPORTED. INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SHEAR APPROACHING 45 KTS WAS
ALLOWING THE STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITH SOME CELLS BECOMING
SUPERCELLUAR IN NATURE. 0-3 HELICITIES WERE NEAR 150 WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS 15 TO 20 DEGREES. HOWEVER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR A
SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WERE LOWER. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
PERFECT...AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING
CONCERN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET COUPLED WITH STRONG MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
A GREATER RISK WHERE STORMS TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT THE
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A CHANGE IN THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE
AREA THE PAST FEW WEEKS WAS UNDERWAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LONGWAVE
TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM WESTERN IOWA THROUGH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO TRAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. MIXED LAYER CAPES WERE AROUND 1500 J/KG PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.

THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAKS INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE OZARKS TONIGHT AND BECOME WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
UNDERNEATH AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. GOOD INFLUX OF
MOISTURE...FRONTAL SCALE FORCING...AND INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES
WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SHEAR...A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET...AND
INCREASING LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COUPLED JET SUGGEST CONVECTION
MAY EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS THAT WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL MAINLY OCCUR EARLY THIS
EVENING AT THE HEIGHT OF INSTABILITY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 14 DEGREES C COMBINED
WITH AMPLE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SUGGEST LOCALLY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN WHERE TRAINING
CELLS DEVELOP.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE EASTWARD OVER THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOME QUESTION TO THE EXACT TRACK...TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER THESE SYSTEMS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST RAIN PERCENTAGES WILL
BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF LATER THURSDAY AS THE LAST IN THE SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME QUESTION ABOUT POSSIBLE
RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP. IT APPEARS WARM
AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST IF
IT DEVELOPS AT ALL. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
STORMS WILL APPROACH THE JOPLIN TERMINAL BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z AND THE
SPRINGFIELD TERMINAL BY 04Z. GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED GUST FRONTS. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AND NEAR STORMS WITH CEILINGS NEAR 2500 FEET AND
VISIBILITIES LOWERED TO NEAR 3 MILES OR LOWER IN HEAVY RAIN. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
430 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-141800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
430 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING:
    HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.
    WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.
    FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
    VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
    AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44
  THROUGH 7 PM. THE STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
  SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
  OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SLOWLY
  EAST OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A
  MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
  THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
  INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
  DEVELOPMENT. A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
  WHICH WILL INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
  DURING THE EVENING. THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST
  MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CASSVILLE TO SALEM THROUGH 10 PM.
  THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT.

  LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS
  MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST
  MISSOURI WHERE RAIN AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED TWO INCHES IN A SHORT
  PERIOD OF TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
  ROUNDS OF STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
  THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING
  ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
451 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     HAIL             COLLINS                 37.88N 93.63W
09/13/2005  1.00 INCH        ST.CLAIR           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

FEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
508 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TORNADO          ARMA                    37.53N 94.70W
09/13/2005                   CRAWFORD           KS   PUBLIC

            INTERMITENT TOUCHDOWNS FROM 4 N OF GIRARD TO 2 NW OF
            ARMA. PRELIMINARY REPORTS.

FEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
516 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     HAIL             4 W PITTSBURG           37.83N 93.37W
09/13/2005  1.00 INCH        HICKORY            MO   PUBLIC

FEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             2 N LIBERAL             37.60N 94.53W
09/13/2005  1.75 INCH        BARTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

FEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     HAIL             IRWIN                   37.58N 94.30W
09/13/2005  1.00 INCH        BARTON             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

0610 PM     HAIL             1 W IRWIN               37.58N 94.32W
09/13/2005  2.75 INCH        BARTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND SEVERAL INCHES DEEP.

FEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             SHELDON                 37.67N 94.30W
09/13/2005  1.75 INCH        VERNON             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

FEH