Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Spokane, WA

000 
WWUS56 KOTX 150029
SVSOTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
526 PM PDT SAT MAY 14 2005

IDC009-055-WAC063-150036-
/O.EXP.KOTX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-050515T0030Z/
KOOTENAI ID-BENEWAH ID-SPOKANE WA-
526 PM PDT SAT MAY 14 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SPOKANE...
NORTHWESTERN BENEWAH AND SOUTHWESTERN KOOTENAI COUNTIES EXPIRES AT
530 PM PDT...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM THAT TRACKED FROM ROCKFORD TO WORLEY HAS 
WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES 
FROM WORLEY TO AROUND HARRISON BY 6 PM. EXPECT VERY SMALL 
HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 

LAT...LON 4754 11713 4737 11719 4728 11674 4750 11667

$$

BZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED POP TABLE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
230 PM PDT SAT MAY 14 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE
INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE INDICATES ONE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A DEEPER
PACIFIC TROUGH SETS UP OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
AREA WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAIN THIS MORNING HAS MOISTENED
THE AIR MASS AND FUELED AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SATELLITE
SUGGESTS A SMALL SUBSIDENCE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS
WAVE CRESTING THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SERVE TO DEPRESS
THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. THEN A
RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT ON TAP WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A PRE-
TROUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH DEW POINTS FROM RECENT RAINS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT IN WIND
SHELTERED LOCATIONS. FOR SUNDAY GFS AND NAM ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AND INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL VERSUS SATELLITE
EXTRAPOLATION. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC REGION OF THE INCOMING TROUGH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN AT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY...LIKELY IN THE MORNING
HOURS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES. WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND COOL MID LEVEL ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL PROBABLY QUICKLY DEPRESS POST-
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE DEEP BASIN AND CASCADES LEE ZONES.
OVER THE EAST THE MAIN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS THE PROSPECT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE MOISTURE AND
FOCUS ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY...NECESSARY INSTABILITY IS
QUESTIONABLE. A LATE MORNING START TO PRECIPITATION OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL LIKELY DEPRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING
MAXIMUM SURFACE BASED CAPE POTENTIAL...AND BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THE
LOWER AND MID LEVEL FRONTAL SURFACES WILL PASS THROUGH BEFORE THE
UPPER LEVEL COOLING AND ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. THUS
EXPECT A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION BEYOND SLIGHT CHANCE. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT A RELATIVELY QUITE PERIOD ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN STORM
SYSTEMS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE
MOUNTAIN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONABLE NORMALS.
/FUGAZZI

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE CWFA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MEAN TROUGH REMAINS
JUST OFF THE COAST...AND EJECTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES
INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY GIVING A
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE GOOD...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER 0-6KM AND 0-1KM
SHEAR IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE. SO FAR WE HAVENT SEEN ALL THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND THINK
THIS MAY BE THE CASE FOR MONDAY AS WELL. AS SUCH EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PULSE WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
OUT FLOW WINDS. THE MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING  WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGING MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A BREAK IN
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE VERY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE JUST NOT THERE WITH THIS
FEATURE SO STAYED WITH SHOWERS FOR THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /TOBIN

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO PROJECT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA THE ENTIRE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH...MODELS DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON PLACEMENT AND
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS COULD HAVE SOME INFLUENCE
ON EXACTLY HOW WET THE PATTERN WILL BE. THE GFS DEVELOPS LESS OF A
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS KEEPS THE PACNW UNDER A
MORE ZONAL EAST-WEST FLOW. THE ECMWF...BY CONTRAST...HAS A LARGER
BLOCKING PATTERN AND A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
PACNW. BOTH PATTERNS WILL BE WET. HOWEVER...BASED ON EXPERIENCE
AND PATTERN RECOGNITION THE ECMWF WILL BE THE WETTER OF THE TWO
PATTERNS. WILL THEREFORE FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP POPS
ELEVATED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. /LERICOS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        50  65  44  62  40  58 /  40  60  50  60  20  20
COEUR DALENE  50  64  43  62  40  58 /  40  70  50  60  40  30
PULLMAN        52  63  44  58  40  55 /  40  70  50  70  20  20
LEWISTON       54  74  49  64  44  63 /  20  70  50  60  20  30
COLVILLE       48  68  44  63  37  61 /  40  60  60  60  40  30
SANDPOINT      47  66  44  63  38  58 /  40  70  60  60  40  30
WALLACE        44  67  42  58  36  55 /  40  70  60  70  40  30
MOSES LAKE     58  73  46  67  42  65 /  20  60  20  20  20  20
WENATCHEE      56  73  47  66  45  64 /  30  60  20  20  20  20
OMAK           53  74  43  66  40  65 /  30  70  20  40  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
604 AM PDT SAT MAY 14 2005

IDZ001>004-026-027-WAZ031-032-037-151315-
NORTHERN PANHANDLE-COEUR DALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-LEWISTON AREA-
LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS-
LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-
604 AM PDT SAT MAY 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO...NORTH IDAHO...SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MAY TRIGGER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF HALF INCH
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

WAZ033>036-038-041>044-151315-
WASHINGTON PALOUSE-MOSES LAKE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-
SPOKANE AREA-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-WENATCHEE AREA-
EAST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES-OKANOGAN VALLEY-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-
604 AM PDT SAT MAY 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON...CENTRAL WASHINGTON...SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON...EAST
CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.