Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 292248
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
548 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

MNC151-292315-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0179.000000T0000Z-050629T2315Z/
SWIFT MN-
548 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR SWIFT
COUNTY...

AT 543 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CLONTARF...OR ABOUT OVER BENSON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE HOLLOWAY AND DANVERS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

LAT...LON 4525 9607 4515 9587 4541 9550 4542 9584

$$

MKM/RJN

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 292312
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
610 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

MNC151-292330-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0179.000000T0000Z-050629T2315Z/
SWIFT MN-
610 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 615 PM CDT FOR SWIFT 
COUNTY...

THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN SWIFT COUNTY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW 
SEVERE LIMITS.

EARLIER...AT 525 PM...THE PUBLIC REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND A 
TREE DOWN 3 MILES NORTH OF HOLLOWAY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

LAT...LON 4525 9607 4515 9587 4541 9550 4542 9584

$$
RJN/MKM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
245 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...SEVERE CONVECTION POTENTIAL AND
TEMPERATURES. ABR RADAR SHOWING SOME SCATTERED CELLS OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...ALONG COLD FRONT.  EXPECT THIS TO BE THE MAIN
ACTION...RIDE INTO WESTERN MN THIS EVENING...WITH CONVECTIVE
LINE/LINEAR MODE/DEVELOPING...AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN DURING THE
EVENING.  WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH-INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN FOR TORNADO THREAT.  HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL REMAIN
ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL 1-2 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE IN SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME.  THE LINEAR MCS WILL ALSO PRODUCE 1 INCH RAINS IN
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME..WITH DAMAGING WINDS A DECENT THREAT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL EXIT INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 03Z.  RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN
END WITH CAA LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST CWA LATER TONIGHT.

COOLER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE AREA. MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW POPS SHOWERS HERE.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. WILL FOLLOW MOVE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS.

LONGER TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW TURNING WSW WITH MAIN TROUGH
AND EMBEDDED WAVES AT TIMES. UKMET IS A LITTLE QUICK EXITING THE
SYSTEM...BUT ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE TROUGH AXIS GOING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. STILL LOOKS LIKE AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ZONAL FLOW RETURNS LATER ON TUESDAY. GFS SUGGESTS JET WOULD NOT BE
AS STRONG AS WHAT WEVE BEEN SEEING SO FAR THIS WEEK...BUT ECMWF
BRINGS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH AT US TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
OUR PATTERN THE LAST THREE WEEKS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
ECMWF SOLUTION.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MN...NONE.
.WI...NONE.

&&

DWE/TDK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
335 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-300400-
ANOKA-BARRON-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-
DOUGLAS-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-RICE-RUSK-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-ST CROIX-STEARNS-STEELE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-
335 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN MINNESOTA.

STORMS IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA...WHILE
OTHERS DEVELOP IN MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO.  LARGE HAIL AND POCKETS OF DAMAGING WIND ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF WISCONSIN.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND
STORMS.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF
STORMS...TRACKING EASTWARD...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND...AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS. WATCHES AND WARNINGS
WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

TDK