Tornado Warning 1, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

000 
WFUS52 KMHX 081538
TORMHX
NCC079-081615-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0001.050308T1539Z-050308T1615Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1039 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT
HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1115 AM EST

* AT 1036 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LINDELL...
  OR 10 MILES WEST OF SNOW HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
  LIZZIE AROUND 1055 AM EST...

IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM AND
GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1-800-889-6889...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3549 7752 3541 7778 3543 7783 3544 7782
      3557 7782 3564 7772 3564 7769 3552 7755
      3553 7753 3551 7751

$$

11

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
312 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...AFTER A DAY OF RECORD
SETTING WARMTH THURSDAY...AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO A MORE SEASONAL REGIME
WILL OCCUR TODAY AS A STRONG AND VERY MOIST COLD FRONT CROSSES ESTRN
NC LATE THIS MORNING. THE ETA AND GFS AGREE IN PUSHING THE FRONT
OFF THE COAST AROUND NOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...S/SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE MILD AIR INTO THE REGION WITH EARLY HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED...THEN TEMPS SHOULD PLUNGE INTO
THE 40S AS A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL WILL BE ENHANCED AS A WAVE FORMS
ALONG THE BNDRY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET PROVIDING STRONG ASCENT ACROSS ESTRN NC...PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH AND LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME MINOR URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. DRY WX THE PAST 2-3 WEEKS WILL ALLEVIATE  THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE
MARGINAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER...STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING TO OUR WEST. VERY STRONG LIFT WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIFL ARE COMPENSATING FOR THE MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES. PRIND IS THAT THERE WILL BE MARGINAL ENOUGH INSTAB
TO SUSTAIN STORING UPDRAFTS AND I EXPECT THIS THREAT TO
TRANSLATE EAST INTO OUR AREA 10-12Z. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL HELECITIES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT AN ISOLD TORNADO. SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND 16Z AS
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FULL LAT TROUGH
WILL TRACK NE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INDUCE MORE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE
LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST. WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE DIFL FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS KEEP LIFT/DEEP RH
ACROSS ESTRN NC THIS EVENING...ESP NEAR THE COAST. THEREFORE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST.
I WILL HOLD ON TO A SMALL POP OUTER BANKS ERLY SAT. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE MIDDLE 40S COAST AND HIGHS SAT WILL
BE NEAR 50. THE MAV MOS LOOKED A LITTLE COLD FRI NIGHT CONSIDERING
THE POTENTIAL FOR BKN CIGS. AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS AND MOVES
NE SAT AND SAT NIGHT...IT WILL PULL EVEN COLDER AIR INTO ESTRN NC SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOWS SAT NIGHT SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING AND
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE UPPER FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A WESTEN RIDGE/ESTRN TROUGH MORE TYPICAL OF WINTER.
THUS TEMPS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS A SIG SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH MON SO
NO SIG WX EXPECTED WITH THAT SYSTEM. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ACROSS ESTRN NC THU/THU NIGHT. I AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THE
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF MOIST AVBL TO THIS SYSTEM SO I WILL KEEP A
SILENT 20 POP FOR A RAIN AND OR SNOW SHOWER THU/THU NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OCNLY IFR IN
INCREASING SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS THIS MORNING. STRONG S-SW WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING NW-N THIS AFTN. EXPECT CIGS TO GO VFR AFT 06Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNING UP FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND STRONG SCA FOR
SOUNDS WITH STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE THIS AFTN. WILL UPDATE
MWS ASAP. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL NORTH OF HATTERAS AND WILL LIKELY
BE SCA ONCE GALES ARE DROPPED (SAT NIGHT N OF LOOKOUT AND MAYBE BY
TOMORROW MORNING S OF LOOKOUT). MWS WILL HIT S PAMLICO SOUND FOR
HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS WITH PERSISTENT STRONG N WINDS.
SCA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEAS THRU TUE N OF LOOKOUT ONCE GALES
ARE DROPPED. S OF LOOKOUT SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 6 FT OVER 20 NM
CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY MON OR POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUN NIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRES TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL EASE ITS WAY SE THRU
TUE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING AMZ150-152-154-156-158
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ZONES AMZ130-135
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...08/ELARDO
AVIATION/MARINE...12/SHAFFER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
459 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2005

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-151000-
BEAUFORT NC-CARTERET NC-CRAVEN NC-DUPLIN NC-GREENE NC-JONES NC-
LENOIR NC-MAINLAND DARE NC-MAINLAND HYDE NC-MARTIN NC-ONSLOW NC-
OUTER BANKS DARE NC-OUTER BANKS HYDE NC-PAMLICO NC-PITT NC-
TYRRELL NC-WASHINGTON NC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTIC BEACH...BAYBORO...BEAUFORT...
BELHAVEN...BEULAVILLE...BUXTON...CEDAR ISLAND...COLUMBIA...DUCK...
EMERALD ISLE...ENGELHARD...FRISCO...GREENVILLE...HARKERS ISLAND...
HATTERAS VILLAGE...HAVELOCK...JACKSONVILLE...KENANSVILLE...
KILL DEVIL HILLS...KINSTON...KITTY HAWK...LA GRANGE...MANNS HARBOR...
MANTEO...MOREHEAD CITY...NAGS HEAD...NEW BERN...
NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH...OCRACOKE...ORIENTAL...PLYMOUTH...SNOW HILL...
SWANQUARTER...SWANSBORO...TRENTON...WALLACE...WARSAW...
WASHINGTON AND WILLIAMSTON
459 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 8 AM AND
NOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY EVENING. MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PRODUCE ROUGH SURF ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MINOR BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY OCEAN OVERWASH AT THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE WATER LEVELS OF 2 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND BASIN AND COULD
LEAD TO MINOR SOUNDSIDE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CARTERET, CRAVEN
AND PAMLICO COUNTIES SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS MORNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
840 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2005

NCZ029-044-045-080-090>093-098-141445-
BEAUFORT-DUPLIN-JONES-LENOIR-CRAVEN-WASHINGTON-MARTIN-ONSLOW-PITT-
840 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ONSLOW...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...
PITT...MARTIN...WASHINGTON...LENOIR...JONES AND DUPLIN COUNTIES UNTIL
945 AM EST...

AT 840 AM EST...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25 MILES NORTH
OF WILLIAMSTON TO 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WALLACE...OR FROM 6 MILES
SOUTH OF AHOSKIE TO 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WALLACE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR KINSTON AT 845 AM
EST...BEULAVILLE AT 850 AM EST...WILLIAMSTON AT 855 AM EST...
WASHINGTON AT 915 AM EST...PLYMOUTH AT 920 AM EST...NEW BERN AT 935
AM EST. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE
GREENVILLE AND TRENTON.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON AREA
ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
948 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2005

NCZ029-045-046-080-081-092>095-098-141545-
TYRRELL-BEAUFORT-PAMLICO-JONES-CRAVEN-MAINLAND
HYDE-WASHINGTON-MARTIN-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
948 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ONSLOW...CARTERET...HYDE...
CRAVEN...PAMLICO...BEAUFORT...TYRRELL...MARTIN...WASHINGTON AND JONES
COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM EST...

AT 948 AM EST...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PLYMOUTH TO 13 MILES WEST OF JACKSONVILLE...OR FROM 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILLIAMSTON TO 13 MILES WEST OF JACKSONVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
PLYMOUTH AT 955 AM EST...NEW BERN AT 1015 AM EST...HAVELOCK AT 1025
AM EST...BELHAVEN AT 1030 AM EST...ORIENTAL AT 1040 AM EST. OTHER
LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE BAYBORO...SWANQUARTER
AND WASHINGTON.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON AREA
ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

AUSTIN