Flash Flood Warning 129, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 042314
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
614 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2005

NMC015-050130-
EDDY-
514 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM MDT FOR 
SOUTHERN EDDY COUNTY...

AT 507 PM MDT...A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED 2 FEET OF WATER 
FLOWING OVER LOW SPOTS ALONG OLD CAVERN HIGHWAY...ALSO KNOWN AS 
COUNTY ROAD 748...ABOUT 8 TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF CARLSBAD. WATER WAS 
ALSO REPORTED OVER THE ROADWAY IN LOW SPOTS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF 
OLD CAVERN HIGHWAY AND BLACK RIVER ROAD...ALSO KNOWN AS COUNTY ROAD 
720.

AT 507 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
DETECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN EDDY 
COUNTY. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGGRAVATE THE 
FLOOD THREAT.

PERSONS TRAVELING ALONG LOCAL ROADS BETWEEN WHITES CITY AND 
MALAGA...AND SOUTH OF CARLSBAD SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FLASH 
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR STREAMS AND CREEKS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE. TURN
AROUND... DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3201 10409 3230 10395 3229 10436 3201 10444

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
226 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2005

.SHORT TERM...
THE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF THE
MULTICELL PULSE VARIETY AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN STORM VELOCITIES NEAR 5 M/S
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 CM.  THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION PRECLUDES A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT
AND THUS WE WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH...HOWEVER...WE HAVE MENTIONED
THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE
COMBINATION OF SPREADING COLD POOLS AND SENSIBLE HEATING LOSS
COMBINE TO STABILIZE THE PBL.  THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT OVERNIGHT...AND WITH A NEARLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILE...LITTLE LIFT IS NEEDED TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
ELEVATED SHOWERS.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WARM BIAS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...
CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL TREND THE MIN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS
TONIGHT STRONGLY TOWARD PERSISTENCE.  POP...SKY...AND ASSOCIATED
SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS WERE DRAWN TO REFLECT CHANCE CATEGORY POPS
FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO SOUTH INTO THE BIG BEND...THEN TAPERING
OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED CATEGORY ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES
THIS EVENING.  THE GFS APPEARS TO BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES OVER FAR WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WHILE
WE EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...QPF WAS SCALED BACK CONSIDERABLY OVER WHAT THE GFS
SUGGESTS.  LASTLY...WIND GRIDS REFLECT THE NAM12 FORECAST AVERAGED
WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE THEN TEMPERED A BIT FOR
LOCAL EFFECTS.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE CWA WITH WEAK A SHEAR AXIS AND
THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION.  BY MONDAY
EVENING THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE WEST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.

WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS AND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA.  BY MONDAY NIGHT THE POPS WILL BE MOVED TO THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS
WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.  BY TUESDAY...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE TO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE THETA-E
RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST.  DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED IN
THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
VERY SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED.  MOST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S
WITH 80S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
60S WITH A FEW 70S ALONG THE BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              67  89  66  91 /  20  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                65  87  65  90 /  40  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  71  91  71  91 /  30  20  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           70  87  68  89 /  40  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  83  62  82 /  50  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   66  88  66  90 /  40  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   58  81  58  84 /  40  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  89  67  91 /  30  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  67  89  67  91 /  30  20  10  10
WINK TX                    72  92  69  95 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

70/54

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
151 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-051200-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
151 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2005 /1251 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
WEST OF A LAMESA...MIDLAND...TO SANDERSON LINE. RAINFALL RATES
NEAR AN INCH PER HOUR MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ARROYOS...
DRAWS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. WIND
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO
LIKELY. WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS
OF SUNSET...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND