Tornado Warning 62, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SLOW MOVING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THAT WILL CHANGE THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS FROM NORTH GEORGIA TO SOUTH LOUISIANA AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE OF TS ARLENE CLOSE TO THE YUCATAN STRAITS. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GULF HAS INCREASED THE WIND FIELD. WITH
THE FORECAST TRACK FROM TPC IN PLAY...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
FIELD WILL BE THE STRONGEST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF TS ARLENE.
ERGO...STRONG EAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PUSH WATER ALONG EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FACING SHORE LINES AND TIDAL LAKES STARTING AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY. WILL MENTION TIDES ABOVE NORMAL WITH CWF THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...HAD TO UP RAIN CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST. THE FORWARD SPEED MAY CUT DOWN SOME PROBLEMS WITH
FLOODING...BUT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER MS COAST. WILL UP MEAN AREAL
PRECIP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI UP TO 2 INCHES FOR A START FOR SATURDAY.
EXPECTING TS TO ACCELERATE NORTH DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE NEGATIVELY TILTED FROM WASHINGTON TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND A COL IS EXPECTED TO SET
UP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY NEXT MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCE OUTSIDE OF
SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  89  69  85 /  20  50  40  60
BTR  71  90  71  88 /  20  50  40  40
MSY  75  89  76  86 /  20  50  40  60
GPT  73  88  73  84 /  20  50  60  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-101200-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST. CHARLES-ST. HELENA-
ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-
UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-
WILKINSON-
1100 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. DUE TO VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE
NEARLY STATIONARY AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING
ON ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST AND THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH A
FEW STORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

.MARINE HAZARDS...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY THEN DEVELOP BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES
NORTHWARD. STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

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