Flash Flood Warning 78, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA72 TJSJ 122332
FFSSJU

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
733 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

PRC059-122345-
GUAYANILLA-
733 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY
IN PUERTO RICO
     GUAYANILLA

A USGS RIVER GAUGE ALONG THE RIO GUAYANILLA IN GUAYANILLA INDICATES 
THAT THE RIVER LEVEL IS NOW BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND CONTINUES TO 
QUICKLY FALL. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED. 

HOWEVER...RIVER LEVELS AND STREAMS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS 
AND RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION.

LAT...LON 1798 6682 1801 6676 1808 6678 1806 6681

$$

BD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NWS MIAMI FL
200 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...12Z UPR AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS UPR TROUGH TO THE NORTH
ABOVE H5 WITH ESLY FLOW BELOW THAT LEVEL. AT THE SFC WEAK/SUBTLE
REFLECTION OF UPR LVL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THROUGH TOMORROW. HAVING SAID THAT SEE NOT MUCH OF A REASON
TO CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST. IN FACT...AHEAD OF EMILY...W/V LOOP
SHOWS VERY DRY AIRMASS AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY NICE WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE STORM
OUTSIDE THE ROUTINE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE IN THIS EASTERLY REGIME
ACROSS INTERIOR WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

THEREAFTER...WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW TROPICAL STORM EMILY
PROGRESSES WITH TIME. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR TROUGH NORTH OF THE
AREA TO LIFT OUT WITH RIDGE CURRENTLY NW OF THE STORM BUILDING
EASTWARD KEEPING THE STORM SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. MAIN CHANGE IN THE
GRIDS STEMS FROM THE CONTINUED LEFT SHIFT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
IMPACT OF THE STORM ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL DEPEND ON HOW WELL
ORGANIZED THE STORM IS WHEN IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS AND ON
THE INTERACTION OF THE DEEP SLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE WITH THE
ISLANDS. CURRENTLY THE CONVECTION AROUND THE STORM LOOKS RATHER
RAGGED WHICH COULD BE RELATED WITH ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF
IT AND THE FACT THAT IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE...AND TO
AVOID REDUNDANCY IN INFORMATION...I SUGGEST ALL INTEREST TO KEEP
ALERT ON THE PROGRESS OF EMILY...THE MAJOR WEATHER THREAT TO OCCUPY
OUR MINDS NOW FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.

.EXTENDED...BEYOND FRIDAY AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...CLIMATOLOGICAL EASTERLY REGIME SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...SEAS WILL BECOME
VERY ROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY AS
WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FURTHER SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN MODEL GUIDANCE MEANS LESS OF
A RAINFALL THREAT IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMILY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES
REMAIN AND ANY RIGHT OF TRACK BIAS IN THE FORECAST COULD INCREASE
THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  91  78  91 /  30  30  50  20
STT  80  86  81  86 /  40  50  50  20
&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.PR...NONE.
.VI...NONE.

&&

PS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
900 AM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-131000-
900 AM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST...AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS WILL
HELP PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY IN OVER
THE WEST AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A FEW OF
THESE SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. OTHERWISE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...LOOKING TO OUR EAST...THE FIFTH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM EMILY. EVEN THOUGH
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY...THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS STORM MOVING
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ALL
LOCAL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-131000-
900 AM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...LOOKING TO OUR EAST...THE FIFTH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM EMILY. EVEN THOUGH
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY...THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS STORM MOVING
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ALL
LOCAL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.