Flash Flood Warning 75, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA72 TJSJ 282057
FFSSJU

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 PM AST TUE JUN 28 2005

PRC081-282055-
LARES-
445 PM AST TUE JUN 28 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING EXPIRES AT 445 PM AST...
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY...

IN PUERTO RICO
     LARES

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED THE WARNING AREA EARLIER 
THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE MOVED WEST NORTHWEST AND WEAKENED. NO 
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. PEOPLE SHOULD HOWEVER 
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE PREVIOUS WARNED AREAS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR 
SO AND REMAIN ALERT FOR WATER ON THE ROADWAYS...AND ALSO ALLOW TIME 
FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS.

LAT...LON 1835 6684 1826 6683 1824 6688 1835 6690

$$

MITCHELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1054 AM AST TUE JUN 28 2005

UPDATED

RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE BEEN SHOWING SEVERAL PATCHES OF
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO SINCE THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AT THIS TIME. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW HAS KEPT THE SHOWERS AWAY
FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREA. FOR THAT REASONS...ADDED SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OF 14Z TO
00Z TONIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...

THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND IT IS RETROGRADING WESTWARD. THIS IS WELL DEPICTED
IN THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE PERSISTENT TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION NEAR 30 NORTH AND 57 WEST IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY START A NORTH NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO
BUT THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT SEEM TO INDICATE ANY
DISPLACEMENT YET. THE LAST FEW DAYS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST HAS
HAD A SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AND MOISTURE WAS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. BUT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW NOW HAVING A MORE ESE COMPONENT...THERE IS NOT AS MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SO THE COMBINATION OF THE
RETREATING UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND A DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN
LESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED NEAR 49/50 WEST AND IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND PASS VERY NEAR OR ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT STABLE AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUPPORTING DYNAMICS IS
EXPECTED AT THESE TIMES. THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFTING SHOULD APPROACH AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND PASS VERY NEAR...I.E. JUST SOUTH OF...OR ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STILL NEED TO WAIT AND
SEE WHAT HAPPENS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS TO SEE IF THE WAVE TAKES A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK AND HOW MUCH IT WILL IMPACT THE REGION. THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WIND SURGE JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
WAVE...BUT LAST QUICKSCAT PASS YESTERDAY WAS NOT IN A GOOD POSITION
TO DETECT IT.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND SURGE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE THE LOCAL SEAS.
WITHOUT ANY SUPPORTING WIND OBSERVATIONS TO SUPPORT INTENSITY OF THE
SURGE...ASSUMED LATEST GFS GUIDANCE WAS TOO HIGH WITH SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS NEAR 23 OR 24 KNOTS IN PLACES...SO DECREASED THE WIND
FORECAST SOME AND DECREASED THE ASSOCIATED SEAS AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  79  89  79 /  40  40  50  50
STT  88  82  88  82 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.PR...NONE.
.VI...NONE.

&&

DIEHL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST TUE JUN 28 2005

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-291000-
600 AM AST TUE JUN 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOCAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...BUT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING
MAY OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-291000-
600 AM AST TUE JUN 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS WILL
RESULT IN A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR URBAN AND GUT TYPE TYPE FLOODING
MAY OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MINOR URBAN AND GUT TYPE FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
226 PM AST TUE JUN 28 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     LIGHTNING        SAN JUAN                18.41N 66.06W
06/28/2005                   SAN JUAN           PR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LIGHTNING STROKE ON TOP OF EURO BANK ROOF IN HATO REY AND
            PIECES OF CONCRETE STARTED TO FALL DOWN TO THE STREET AND
            HIT SEVERAL CARS THAT WERE PARK IN THE AVENUE

&&

OBERMUDE