Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA72 TJSJ 100018 CCA
FFSSJU
PRC013-039-054-141-100130-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
817 PM AST THU JUN 9 2005

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE MUNICIPALITIES OF

     CIALES
     FLORIDA
     UTUADO
     ARECIBO

...HAS EXPIRED...

AT 815 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SHOWERS OCCURRING 
OVER THESE MUNICIPALITIES HAVE DISSIPATED OR MOVED AWAY OVER THE 
ATLANTIC WATERS. 

THE RIVER LEVEL SENSORS ALONG THE RIVERS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE 
MUNICIPALITIES HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED TO SAFE LEVELS. 

FOR THAT REASON THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MUNICIPALITIES ABOVE 
HAS BEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

RIVERA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST THU JUN 9 2005

...UP AHEAD A RAINY WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A WARMER WEEK...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES FROM A CENTER OVER THE JAMAICA
CHANNEL NORTH TO THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. RIDGING
CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. ALSO ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND MOVES TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE IS GENERALLY ORIENTED EAST-WEST
AND CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT WILL MIGRATE
NORTHWARD OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS GENERALLY EAST AND NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CUBA AND SOUTH OF
WESTERN CUBA ATOP OF ARLENE. A JET OF NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER AND NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE WEEK. BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AN EAST-WEST RIDGE
HAS FORMED NEAR 21 WEST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS MOVING TOWARD PUERTO RICO FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION NEAR 62 WEST.
THIS WAVE SHOULD CROSS SAN JUAN FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE
WESTWARD. A WEAK LOW MAY FORM NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. A GENERAL DRYING
TREND WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AFTER MONDAY...BUT WINDS
AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NORTH OF US WILL SLIDE TO JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHWEST AFRICA BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...WITH A RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR REVEALED VERY LITTLE CONVECTION OVER THE AREA
THIS MORNING IN KEEPING WITH THE INHIBITORY INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ALOFT AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND IT OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. DRYER AIR WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE 12Z
SOUNDING BETWEEN 900 AND 700 MB. CONVECTION HAS SINCE FLARED A
LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO GROW.

THE GFS HAS BEEN BRINGING VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT LOWER
LEVELS FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO...BUT GENERALLY THE DRYER AIR JUST TO
OUR NORTH HAS PREVAILED. ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION DID FORM
OVERNIGHT...AND RAIN COVERED 90 PERCENT OF THE AREA SOUTH OF AN
EAST-WEST LINE THROUGH SAINT CROIX...MOST OF PUERTO RICO REMAINED
DRY. THE GFS AGAIN BRINGS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...AND QUITE
STRONGLY BETWEEN 12-18Z FRIDAY...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO DELAY THIS
ONSLAUGHT OF MOISTURE ONE DAY. THIS IS BOTH IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
ETA AND THE DISCUSSION WITH HPC REGARDING THE INTERACTION OF THE
WAVE AND THE TUTT EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE SHOULD
INCREASE FRIDAY AS THIS TUTT GRADUALLY MOVES WEST AND MOISTURE FROM
THE WAVE IS FINALLY ALLOWED TO COME THIS FAR NORTH.

THE GFS HOLDS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AT 850 MB EAST OF THE AREA NEAR
55 WEST MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO FORM NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND WILL WARM THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO CONSIDERABLY.
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES CLIMB FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING AND THEN PLATEAU TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A
LITTLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FALL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SAN JUAN AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL WARM
CLOSE TO THE MID 90S IN SOUTH FLOW AND COULD BREAK THE RECORD ON
WEDNESDAY IF THE SOUTH FLOW CAN OVERWHELM THE SEA BREEZE. SOUTH
PUERTO RICO WILL FIND SEA BREEZES A LITTLE MORE COOLING THAN DURING
A NORMAL JUNE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK WINDS IN THE AREA WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BECOME QUIETER
AFTER THE WEEKEND IN THE ATLANTIC. BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE AREA
ARE FORECAST TO ROUGHEN SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN  ON TUESDAY WITH SHORT
PERIOD WAVES OF 4 TO 5 FEET. THIS ALSO SHOULD SUBSIDE TOWARD THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHEAST NATURE OF THE WAVES SHOULD MEAN THAT
THEY WILL BE NOTICED A BIT MORE ON THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HAMPER AVIATION BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. PILOTS SHOULD FIND
CONDITIONS IMPROVING NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IN THE WEST OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SOMETIME ON
SATURDAY...AMOUNTS PRODUCED FROM CONVECTION WILL BE GENERALLY
MODERATED BY COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS...BUT SOME
LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  86  77  88 /  50  60  80  80
STT  80  85  80  87 /  60  70  70  80

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.PR...NONE.
.VI...NONE.

&&

SNELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-101000-
600 AM AST THU JUN 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WEST ACROSS PUERTO RICO
TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
SMALL STREAMS AND ROADS...AS WELL AS OTHER LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A PERTURBATION IN THE TRADE WINDS AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
INTERACT...BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-101000-
600 AM AST THU JUN 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE LOCAL EFFECTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
GUTS...SMALL STREAMS AND ROADS...AS WELL AS OTHER LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A PERTURBATION IN THE TRADE WINDS AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
INTERACT...BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SUFFICIENT RAIN TO CAUSE URBAN...GUT AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.