Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST MON MAY 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
AFFECTED MAINLY THE SOUTHERN COASTS AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF
PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWER PRODUCED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER 3
INCHES IN SOME ISOLATED AREAS.

THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. ALL THIS WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED TO THE COMBINATION OF A OLD
BOUNDARY AND A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 68W. THE
UPPER AND MID LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE UNSTABLE
ACROSS OUR LOCAL REGION. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LA HISPANIOLA BUT NO ALL MODELS HAVE THE SAME
TIMING. THE GFS MODEL IS DEVELOPING THE LOW LATER TONIGHT AND
MOVING IT OVER THE MONA CHANNEL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST
IS BASED ON THIS MODEL IF THE LOW DEVELOPS LATER...SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT US LATER AND THE ACTIVE
WEATHER WILL LINGER OVER OUR LOCAL REGION LONGER.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...AND THEN
INTENSIFY AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68 WEST IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TONIGHT. AREAS OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD BE ON THE ALERT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD MAKING THE POTENTIAL HIGHER FOR FLASH FLOOD ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  80  75  84 /  70  70  70  70
STT  75  79  76  82 /  50  50  50  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MONDAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR
      PRZ001...PRZ002...PRZ003...PRZ004...PRZ005...PRZ006...
      PRZ007...PRZ008...PRZ009...PRZ010...PRZ011...PRZ012...
      PRZ013.
.VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MONDAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR
      VIZ001...VIZ002.

&&

10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
610 AM AST MON MAY 16 2005

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-171000-
610 AM AST MON MAY 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEVERAL WEATHER FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO KEEP
THE LOCAL AREA IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND SOME URBAN FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING.
ALSO...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

MARINERS ARE ALSO URGED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS THAT WILL OCCUR OCCASIONALLY...AS CLUSTERS OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGIONAL WATERS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN INTENSIFY AND MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PULL ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-171000-
610 AM AST MON MAY 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEVERAL WEATHER FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO KEEP
THE LOCAL AREA IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME URBAN
AND GUT FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

MARINERS ARE ALSO URGED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS THAT WILL OCCUR OCCASIONALLY...AS CLUSTERS OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGIONAL WATERS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH
ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN INTENSIFY AND MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PULL ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.