Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
345 PM AST FRI MAY 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...EARLIER TODAY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS GENERATED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 3 INCHES.

AT THIS MOMENT THE DOPPLER RADAR IS REPORTING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF PUERTO RICO WILL COMBINE WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH
CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTHEAST
OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS TONIGHT. THE ELONGATED REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA EAST NORTHEAST TO JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC... WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND ALONG THIS OLD BOUNDARY...AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE STATEMENTS AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS COULD BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DUE LARGE COVERAGE OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT LOW VISIBILITIES AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. MOST OF PUERTO RICO SOILS REMAIN SATURATED
THEREFORE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL GENERATE RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  81  75  81 /  70  60  50  60
STT  75  80  75  80 /  70  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.PR...NONE.
.VI...NONE.

&&

10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST FRI MAY 13 2005

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-141000-
600 AM AST FRI MAY 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEVERAL WEATHER FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO KEEP
THE LOCAL AREA IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. NEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE BEGINS TO TRIGGER
CONVECTION AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME MUNICIPALITIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY URBAN AND STREAM FLOODING
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AN UNSTABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER
ATMOSPHERE PLUS LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS...WILL LEAD TO HEAVY LOCALIZED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. WITH THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN ISOLATED AREAS WHERE
HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-141000-
600 AM AST WED MAY 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...SEVERAL WEATHER FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO KEEP
THE LOCAL AREA IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. NEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR
BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE BEGINS TO TRIGGER
CONVECTION AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED BY URBAN AND GUT FLOODING DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AN UNSTABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER
ATMOSPHERE PLUS LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS...WILL LEAD TO HEAVY LOCALIZED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. WITH THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN ISOLATED AREAS WHERE
HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.