Flash Flood Warning 175, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID TO UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE PREDOMINANT MOIST
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS THE TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST
SATELITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED OCCASIONAL LINES OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION AND AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES WHILE BEING LIFTED NORTHWEST IN THE SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW. WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER AND
WIND FLOW PATTERN OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LINES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER PARTS OF THE ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A RELATIVELY MOIST
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER EXPECT THE MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD...AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FEATURES SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD...AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
BY SUNDAY. AS THE CLOUDINESS DIMINISH...DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE
WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY THEN FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MORE
LOCALIZED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE GROUND ACROSS THE REGION IS EXTREMELY SATURATED...
MANY STREAMS AND MAJOR RIVERS REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS OR ARE OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. A CONTINUATION OF THE RAINS AND OCCASIONAL SURGES OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ISLANDS...WILL CAUSE CONTINUED FLOODING
PROBLEMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. ALSO THE CHANCES FOR DEBRIS
FLOW/MUDSLIDES REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. ALL
RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE ISLAND REMAIN VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...THE UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN ALERT FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. THIS WILL CREATE
CHOPPY SEAS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS...AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING....AND WATERSPOUTS.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  87  74  87 /  80  80  70  60
STT  77  85  78  86 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR
PRZ001-PRZ002-PRZ003-PRZ004-
PRZ005-PRZ006-PRZ007-PRZ008-PRZ009-PRZ010.

VI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR VIZ001-VIZ002.

&&

09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2005

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-121030-
630 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE AND ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
CREATE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO GENERATE
OCCASIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WIDESPREAD URBAN
AND STREAM FLOODING...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. SINCE
GROUNDS ARE STILL SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL BE CAPABLE OF INDUCING MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN ALERT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS...WHICH WILL CREATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS...AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. HOWEVER...ON
WEDNESDAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-121030-
630 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE AND ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
CREATE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO GENERATE
OCCASIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WIDESPREAD URBAN
AND STREAM FLOODING...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. SINCE
GROUNDS ARE STILL SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL BE CAPABLE OF INDUCING MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN ALERT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS...WHICH WILL CREATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS...AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. HOWEVER...ON
WEDNESDAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.