Flash Flood Warning 174, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID TO UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE BEING PULLED FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE
STREAM OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF DENSE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING TODAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. THE LATEST INFORMATION INDICATES THAT THESE OR
SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND PROBABLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...THE UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITIES...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...LIGHTNING AND POSIBLE WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...MANY STREAMS AND
RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS...A CONTINUATION OF THE RAINS AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST...THE CHANCES FOR FLOODING WILL
REMAIN HIGH. ALSO THE CHANCES FOR LANDSLIDES ARE VERY HIGH ACROSS
THE STEEP TERRAIN OF THE ISLANDS. ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN
VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION WAS ESTABLISHED
YESTERDAY FOR THE SAN JUAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WITH 3.61 INCHES
MEASURED. YEAR TO DATE 23.14 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL VALUE HAVE BEEN
MEASURED IN THE SAME PLACE. THIS IS 10.95 INCHES ABOVE THE VALUE
MEASURED LAS YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  75  87  74 /  90  90  80  80
STT  86  77  85  78 / 100 100  80  80

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR PRZ001-PRZ002-PRZ003-
     PRZ004-PRZ005-PRZ006-PRZ007-PRZ008-PRZ009-PRZ010-PRZ011-
     PRZ012-PRZ013.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR VIZ001-VIZ002.

&&

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2005

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-121030-
630 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE AND ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
CREATE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO GENERATE
OCCASIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WIDESPREAD URBAN
AND STREAM FLOODING...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. SINCE
GROUNDS ARE STILL SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL BE CAPABLE OF INDUCING MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN ALERT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS...WHICH WILL CREATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS...AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. HOWEVER...ON
WEDNESDAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-121030-
630 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE AND ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
CREATE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO GENERATE
OCCASIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WIDESPREAD URBAN
AND STREAM FLOODING...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. SINCE
GROUNDS ARE STILL SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL BE CAPABLE OF INDUCING MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN ALERT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS...WHICH WILL CREATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS...AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. HOWEVER...ON
WEDNESDAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.