Flash Flood Warning 158, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA72 TJSJ 082107
FFSSJU

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 PM AST SAT OCT 8 2005

PRC007-021-025-047-051-061-063-127-135-137-139-143-145-082115-
DORADO-CAGUAS-COROZAL-AGUAS BUENAS-GURABO-SAN JUAN-TOA ALTA-TRUJILLO
ALTO-VEGA ALTA-BAYAMON-GUAYNABO-VEGA BAJA-TOA BAJA-
505 PM AST SAT OCT 8 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING EXPIRED AT 500 PM AST...FOR THE FOLLOWING 
MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
     DORADO...CAGUAS...COROZAL...AGUAS BUENAS...GURABO...SAN JUAN...
     TOA ALTA...TRUJILLO ALTO...VEGA ALTA...BAYAMON...GUAYNABO...VEGA
     BAJA AND TOA BAJA

ALTHOUGH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED 
AREA...RIVERS ARE COMING DOWN AND THE DANGER OF FLOODING HAS ABATED 
FOR THE TIME BEING. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE 
SITUATION.

LAT...LON 1844 6620 1838 6608 1827 6596 1826 6608
      1836 6637 1846 6644

$$

SNELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
618 AM AST SAT OCT 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...WHAT A BEAUTIFUL MORNING...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A LIGHT AND EVEN CALM WIND FLOW. IS
YOU THINK...THIS WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LIKE THE ONE IM
DESCRIBING ABOVE...YOURE WRONG. BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...WE ARE
EXPECTING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE SECTORS OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND NORTH CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. BUT THIS IS NOT
OVER...FOR THE REST OF THIS COLUMBUS DAY WEEKEND...THINGS ARE NOT
GOING TO GET BETTER. THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM
ALL THE CARDINAL POINTS TOWARD PUERTO RICO...WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL PERIODS OF EXTREME TROPICAL RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING..DAY OR NIGHT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

STAY TUNE...FOR MORE WEATHER COVERAGE UPDATE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. THIS IS A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND IT WILL BEGIN TO CREATE VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION STARTING THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS DEVELOPED
UNDERNEATH OF THIS UPPER LOW...AND WILL ACCOMPANY IT AS IT MOVES
WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SETUP WILL BRING ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SYNONYM FOR THIS IS
TRANSLATE TO SEVERAL PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND NUMEROUS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME TROPICAL RAINFALL THAT
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...DAY OR NIGHT...ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OR COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MARINE... SEAS CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO BE DOMINATED ACROSS THE OFF
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS BY MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELLS...KEEPING SEAS
AROUND 6 FEET. HAVING IN MIND...THE TYPE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS AN EXPECTED WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND THEN SORT OF A SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY...AND COULD BECOME STRONG...IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR ANY INTENSE AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS...AND KEEP
MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY... SOILS ARE STILL SATURATED FROM THE COPIOUS RAINFALL OF
THE PAST WEEK...AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND. HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE
AFFECTED MORE EASILY AND FASTER THAN OTHERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  76  81  76 /  70  60  70  80
STT  86  78  83  77 /  50  50  80  80

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST SAT OCT 8 2005

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-091030-
630 AM AST SAT OCT 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE AND ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WELL TO
OUR NORTHEAST THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO CREATE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND WILL
MOVE WEST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO GENERATE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
MOISTENING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THEN SHIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME AREAS WILL SEE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO URBAN AND STREAM
FLOODING...AND ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING
ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL AND WATERSPOUTS...OR
WEAK TORNADOS.

MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS
AND ARE MAINTAINING SEAS AROUND 6 FEET ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY IS MAKING IT INTO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST COASTS AND BEACHES OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...GENERATING RIP
CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TO CREATE AN EXPLOSIVELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AT THE
SAME TIME...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING IN BOTH DEPTH AND
QUANTITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AND VERY HEAVY...AND POSSIBLY
EXTREME RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN. THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH HIGH RAINFALL CHANCES PERSISTING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST OR
OUR AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND COULD INDIRECTLY INCREASE THE
LOCAL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...AND EVENTUALLY GENERATE MODERATE
TO LARGE SWELLS THAT WOULD AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-091030-
630 AM AST SAT OCT 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE AND ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WELL TO
OUR NORTHEAST THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO CREATE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND WILL
MOVE WEST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITIONS TO GENERATE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
MOISTENING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THEN SHIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME AREAS WILL SEE HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY LEADING TO URBAN AND GUT
FLOODING. INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE
WATERSPOUTS.

MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS
AND ARE MAINTAINING SEAS AROUND 6 FEET ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY IS MAKING IT INTO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST COASTS AND BEACHES OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...GENERATING RIP
CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TO CREATE AN EXPLOSIVELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AT THE
SAME TIME...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING IN BOTH DEPTH AND
QUANTITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AND VERY HEAVY...AND POSSIBLY
EXTREME RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN. THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH HIGH RAINFALL CHANCES PERSISTING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST OR
OUR AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND COULD INDIRECTLY INCREASE THE
LOCAL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...AND EVENTUALLY GENERATE MODERATE
TO LARGE SWELLS THAT WOULD AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.

70