Flash Flood Warning 140, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA72 TJSJ 302218
FFSSJU

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
615 PM AST FRI SEP 30 2005

PRC099-302317-
MOCA-
615 PM AST FRI SEP 30 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY
IN PUERTO RICO
     MOCA

AT 6 PM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT RAINFALL HAD ENDED 
ACROSS MOCA A FEW HOURS AGO...AND WATER LEVELS IN LOCAL CREEKS AND 
STREAMS...AND IN LOW LYING AREAS WERE GRADUALLY RETURNING TO MORE 
NORMAL LEVELS. THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN 
DISCONTINUED.

HOWEVER...THIS AFTERNOONS RAINFALL IS NOW FLOWING THROUGH THE RIO 
CULEBRINAS SYSTEM...AND USGS RIVER LEVEL SENSORS SHOW RISING WATER 
LEVELS IN THE RIVER. SHOULD RIVER LEVELS RISE TO POTENTIALLY 
DANGEROUS LEVELS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A FLOOD WATCH OR 
WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR RIVER FLOODING. STAY TUNED. 

LAT...LON 1844 6705 1834 6705 1835 6713 1843 6711

$$

70

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1131 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2005

.UPDATE...THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS CORRECTED IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO AND
PROVED TO BE A LITTLE WETTER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY RELEASED DATA. IT
IS HOWEVER DRYER THAN ANY SINCE 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST SHOWERS
OVER PUERTO RICO APPEARED A LITTLE AFTER 11 AM OVER THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...WHERE THE FIRST CLOUDS HAVE FORMED GOOD BANKING. SINCE THE
FLOW IS FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA...IT APPEARS THAT
AREAS OF MOISTURE ARE MOVING ONSHORE AND CONDENSING OVER THE
CORDILLERA. SHOWERS WILL FORM TO THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE LATER.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE THE
NORTH COAST TO GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...A DISTURBANCE NEAR 15 NORTH 51 WEST WHICH
APPEARS TO BE CONNECTED TO A LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW
TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL PULL ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS MAINLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO
THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 60 WEST
AND 20 NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS NEAR
40 T0 45 KNOTS NEAR THE 250MB LEVEL AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
VENTILATION AT THE UPPER LEVELS TODAY. THE WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGERY
AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...COMBINATION OF LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...UPPER LEVEL
VENTILATION AND DAY TIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE EAST NORTHEAST
COMPONENT WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS AS WELL.

FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS...THIS SHOULD LESSEN THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. IN ADDITION...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
USUAL CHANCE OF MORE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION REMAINING.

FOR THE MARINE FORECAST...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES LINGERING
MODERATE TO LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS TODAY...THEN STARTING TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 5 FEET TODAY AND DIMINISHING TO NEAR 3
TO 4 FEET BY SATURDAY.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.

&&

SNELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2005

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-011030-
600 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTORS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HEAVY LOCALIZED RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

MODERATE LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGIONAL WATERS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61 WEST THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AS ALWAYS...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COMES THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH CAN LEAD TO AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-011030-
600 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO URBAN AND GUT TYPE
FLOODING.

MODERATE LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGIONAL WATERS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61 WEST THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AS ALWAYS...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COMES THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH CAN LEAD TO AREAS OF
URBAN AND GUT TYPE FLOODING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.

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