Flash Flood Warning 137, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA72 TJSJ 290002
FFSSJU
PRC051-143-290100-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
800 PM AST WED SEP 28 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THE 

   FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES IN PUERTO    
   RICO...
     DORADO
     VEGA ALTA.

AT 8:00 PM AST...NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT VERY HEAVY RAIN 
HAD ENDED OVER TWO HOURS AGO ACROSS THIS FORMER WARNING AREA. THE 
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS THEREFORE ENDED FOR THE EVENING...AND 
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS BEING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE REPLACED BY A FLOOD WATCH...FOR 
RIVER FLOODING. LOCAL STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH...WITH 
MANY NORTH COASTAL RIVERS STILL RISING AND APPROACHING BANKFULL. 
RIVER FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED MOMENTARILY.

$$

70

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST WED SEP 28 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR 30N56W INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE BASE OF TROUGH AND JUST WEST OF IT
IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A LOW WILL
FORM AT THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK...
AND MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IN THE MEANTIME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE BROUGHT IN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
BY THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...THE PRESENCE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES AND
REASONABLE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK....ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS
NEAR 53W ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND
APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY FRIDAY AND ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING BY THURSDAY
MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTLINES UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  78  88 /  50  50  50  60
STT  79  88  79  88 /  50  50  50  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...SCA AMZ710.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR PRZ001-002-005-
008-010-012-013.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR VIZ001.

&&

09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST WED SEP 28 2005

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-291030-
630 AM AST WED SEP 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR PERIODS OF ACTIVE
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO URBAN AND STREAM FLOODING...AND SOME AREAS MAY SEE MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE VERY SLOWLY
THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL OFF
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTLINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

OTHER THAN DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
ISOLATED AREAS...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-291030-
630 AM AST WED SEP 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
ABUNDANT TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR PERIODS OF ACTIVE
WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO URBAN
AND GUT TYPE FLOODING.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE VERY SLOWLY
THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL OFF
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTLINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

OTHER THAN DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
ISOLATED AREAS. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.