Tornado Warning 157, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
550 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATING ZONES FOR NEW TORNADO WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 416 AM...
RITA LANDFALL IN THE SWRN CORNER OF LA SHOULD MAKE THIS HURC SEASON
ONE FOR THE RECORDS IN THAT STATE WITH A SECOND CAT.3 IN LESS THAN A
MONTH. SO FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE STAYED JUST SW OF OUR CWFA
WITH 2-3 INCH TOTALS NOW CREEPING INTO CATAHOULA/CONCORDIA PARISHES.
LOOK FOR THESE DROUGHT-BUSTING RAINS TO INCREASE UP THE MS RIVER WITH
ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS WORKING NWD ACROSS NERN LA/WRN MS. WILL
KEEP WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SW OF BROOKHAVEN
TO VICKSBURG TO BASTROP AND GO WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORIES JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT IN THE EXTREME ERN COUNTIES. STRONGEST 925MB
WIND FIELDS OF 50-60KTS WORK NWD THROUGH NERN LA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
THEY TURN MORE FROM THE S. THESE WIND FIELDS EXPAND EWD TO I-55 LATE
TONIGHT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO KEPT AS IS HOWEVER WILL PROBABLY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED NWD FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO INCLUDE THE DELTA REGION
AS RITA MOVES NWD ALONG THE SABINE RIVER AND SLOWS.

SWRN HALF OF CWFA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR TORNADOES IN THE OUTER
BANDS OF RITA AS DAYTIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY. ALREADY SEEING STRONG
INDICATIONS OF ROTATING CELLS IN SERN LA AND THESE WILL BE HEADING
INTO SRN MS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. TORNADO WATCH POSTED AND WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED BY SPC DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BY TONIGHT...RITA CENTER PROGGED TO APPROACH ARKLATEX REGION AND
SHOULD BE NEARLY STALLING CLOSE TO THE KSHV AREA TOWARD MORNING.
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS...STEADY WINDS TONIGHT WITH STILL A
TORNADO RISK FOR MAINLY WRN HALF OF CWFA. RAINFALL TOTALS ALONG AND W
OF THE MS RIVER SHOULD AVERAGE 4-8 INCHES WITH MORE LIKELY THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY./40/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON THE
INLAND PATH OF RITA. RITA WILL MOVE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE. IT WILL WEAKEN TO A INLAND LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WHEN IT MOVES OVER OUR CWA. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK SHOULD
FINALLY DECREASE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER
DECREASING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. ACCORDING TO THE GFS THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL PUSH THE RAINS OUT OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS GFS MODEL
RUN IN MOVING THE REMANTS OF RITA OUT OF THE REGION. IT BRINGS IN THE
DRIER AIR WITH 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS TOO
FAST...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS BRING IT IN ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS MORE
REASONABLE. SO THIS MODEL WAS DISCARDED. THE NAM MODEL STILL KEEPS
RAINS MAINLY WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE
BRINGING THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE EUROPEAN...NOGAPS AND CANADIAN SLOWS
THINGS DOWN AND KEEPS SOME RAIN AROUND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...WHILE A FLAT RIDGE
DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST. WILL KEEP POPS ABOUT THE SAME AND MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS./17/

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT A GREAT DAY FOR AVIATION CONCERNS WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH RITA. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WILL
SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE CWFA TODAY. STRONGER BANDS OF RAIN WILL
PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. EXPECT MOST WINDS TO REMAIN OUT OF
090-130 DEGREES THROUGH MIDDAY AND BECOME MORE 130- 160 DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY IMPROVEMENTS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE KMEI AND KHBG SITES WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES
RETURN./40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       83  76  82  72 / 100  80  90  80
MERIDIAN      83  74  84  69 /  90  70  90  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY FOR MSZ053-MSZ059-MSZ060-
     MSZ061.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY FOR MSZ047-MSZ053-MSZ059-
     MSZ060-MSZ061-MSZ062.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR
     MSZ018-MSZ019-MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ034-MSZ035-
     MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ040-MSZ041-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ048-
     MSZ049-MSZ050-MSZ054-MSZ055-MSZ056-MSZ063-MSZ064-MSZ065-
     MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-MSZ074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-LAZ009-
     LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-LAZ009-
     LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.

AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR
     ARZ074-ARZ075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1039 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
251539-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
1039 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORNADOES AND WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH WILL BE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
CANTON...TO RALEIGH...TO THE LAUREL/HATTIESBURG AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.I

HURRICANE RITA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY TODAY. AS IT DOES...STRONG WIND SHEAR IN LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM WILL
SPREAD INTO EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING STRONG ROTATION HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING...AND IN
ADDITION A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALL OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.

DUE TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORNADOES AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.
TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANES OF THE SIZE AND INTENSITY OF
RITA CAN BE STRONG...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
A FEW STRONG TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER 9
PM...BUT A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR.

...FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA...IT MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WITH PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING
INTO THE REGION...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AS RAIN
BANDS FROM HURRICANE RITA REPEATEDLY MOVE INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY MAY REACH 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME ALONG WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS MAY LEAD TO RAPID
RUN OFF AND FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BASTROP TO CLAYTON
LOUISIANA TO BUDE MISSISSIPPI.

HEAVY RAIN AND PONDING CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...CAUSING
WATER TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS AND IN OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY FOR MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN EXPECTED OVER A WIDE AREA WEST OF A
LAUREL TO WINONA LINE. AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES FARTHER
NORTH...STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF NEAR 30 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH OVER EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...ALONG AND SOUTHWEST
OF A BROOKHAVEN TO VICKSBURG TO BASTROP LINE.

WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN QUITE GUSTY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.
JACKSON HAS REPORTED A PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 26 MPH...WITH A
PEAK GUST OF 36 MPH...WHILE NATCHEZ-ADAMS CIVIL DEFENSE HAS
REPORTED A GUST TO 47 MPH. WINDS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT
MORE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT THIS
EVENING AS RITA WEAKENS.

A COMBINATION OF WET GROUND OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND DAMAGED TREES AND LIMBS FROM KATRINA
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS FROM THESE WINDS.  SOME OF THESE LIMBS AND
TREES MAY COME DOWN ON POWERLINES...AND POWER OUTAGES HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REPORTED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. BE ESPECIALLY ALERT
FOR DEAD LIMBS THAT COULD FALL IF YOU ARE VENTURING OUTDOORS
TODAY.

...FIRE DANGER...
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DUE TO NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS
CONTINUES TO EXIST ACCORDING TO THE MISSISSIPPI FORESTRY
COMMISSION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE
NUMEROUS BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS SPIRAL
BANDS FROM RITA MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN
RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
BANDS. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RISK ON SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON
HOW RAPIDLY RITA WEAKENS. AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE GREATEST RISK
LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR AS STEADY RAINS
PERSIST TO THE WEST.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
MAINLY DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INCREASES
DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COVER MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY AND
PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES MAY BE COMMON OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BY MONDAY MORNING.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE RITA WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...PRODUCING
INTERMITTENT AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME OF A FEW
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SPOTS...WHICH COULD EXACERBATE
ANY MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS WHICH MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS
AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA. OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED NEXT
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

MSZ059-061-062-241730-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1158 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

A BAND OF SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
JEFFERSON AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 1 PM. THESE SQUALLS WILL
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
A FEW TREES TO BE DOWNED ALONG WITH POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1219 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 E FANNIN              32.42N 89.94W
09/24/2005                   RANKIN             MS   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

AEG