Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
304 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO NEAR THE KS/OK
BORDER. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THIS FEATURE, BEING AIDED BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK. DUE TO YESTERDAY EVENINGS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, FRONT HAS PUSHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, THUS HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT FOR TODAY.
FRONT SHOULD BECOME MORE DIFFUSE TODAY AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO
OKLAHOMA, BUT 850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON KEPT CHANCE
POPS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MAY
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IF THEY SEE SOME SUN.

PUSH OF MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY, AS POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM SATURDAY. REMOVED POPS FOR
SUNDAY, AS ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
KANSAS WHERE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE. ETA IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE (FARTHER SOUTH) WITH POLAR HIGH, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, THE ETA IS
NOT SUPPORTED BY THE GFS, UKMET OR ECMWF. CONSEQUENTLY, WARMED
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST, BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S MOST AREAS.

TRICKY POP/WX FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY, DUE TO THE POSSIBLE
PRESENCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BE RETURNING NORTHWARD, AIDING IN LIFT/INSTABILITY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IS PRETTY DIFFUSE AND NOT SUPPORTED BY ALL THE MODELS, AND LOW-LEVEL
JET APPEARS WEAK, SO ONLY MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THOUGH.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD RETURN BY WEDNESDAY, AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
COMMENCES IN RESPONSE TO LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
WITH LATEST RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF, APPEARS COLD FRONT MAY NOT
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK OR EVEN THE WEEKEND,
EFFECTIVELY LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA HOT/HUMID AND BREEZY. HOWEVER,
WILL WAIT FOR BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    90  68  89  65 /  30  30  10  20
HUTCHINSON      88  66  88  65 /  30  20  10  20
NEWTON          89  66  88  64 /  30  20  10  20
ELDORADO        89  67  88  64 /  40  20  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  69  89  66 /  40  30  10  20
RUSSELL         86  64  88  64 /  20  20  10  20
GREAT BEND      87  65  88  64 /  20  20  10  20
SALINA          86  64  88  63 /  20  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       88  65  88  64 /  30  20  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     91  69  89  65 /  50  30  10  20
CHANUTE         90  68  88  64 /  50  20  10  20
IOLA            90  67  88  63 /  40  20  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KETCHAM/KLEINSASSER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
536 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-211200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
536 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS,
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ARRIVE BY LATE WEEK. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE TYPE
AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KLEINSASSER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

KSZ094-095-201215-
ELK-WILSON-
635 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELK AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 629 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LONGTON...OR 12 MILES NORTH
OF SEDAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

KETCHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
712 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GALVA                   38.38N 97.54W
08/19/2005                   MCPHERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5 IN TREE LIMBS DOWN. 50-60 MPH WINDS ESTIMATED.

&&

BDK