Wind Advisory 3, NWS Honolulu, HI

000 
WWHW70 PHFO 150659 CCA
NPWHFO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
858 PM HST WED DEC 14 2005

...STRONG WINDS WILL BUFFET THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS THROUGH 2 PM
THURSDAY...

.A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A TROUGH ALOFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND...AND AN UPPER RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WILL
CREATE STRONG WINDS AT THE SUMMITS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LOW WEAKENS AND THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH TOWARD THE BIG ISLAND.

HIZ028-151915-
/X.NEW.PHFO.WI.Y.0003.051215T0658Z-051216T0000Z/
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
858 PM HST WED DEC 14 2005

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM HST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM HST THURSDAY. 

SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. 

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT. USE EXTRA CAUTION.


$$

BIRCHARD

000 
WWHW70 PHFO 151912
NPWHFO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
912 AM HST THU DEC 15 2005

...STRONG WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS...

.A LOW ALOFT SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL CREATE STRONG WINDS
AT THE SUMMITS TODAY. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS.

HIZ028-160400-
/X.EXT.PHFO.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T0400Z/
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
912 AM HST THU DEC 15 2005

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON...

SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA LOA AND MAUNA KEA
TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

000 
WWHW70 PHFO 160054
NPWHFO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
254 PM HST THU DEC 15 2005

...WINDS HAVE DROPPED OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS...

HIZ028-160200-
/X.CAN.PHFO.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T0400Z/
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MAUNA LOA AND MAUNA KEA ABOVE 8000 FEET
254 PM HST THU DEC 15 2005

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

A LOW ALOFT SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST AND
WEAKENED. WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS HAVE DROPPED BELOW THE
ADVISORY LEVEL.

$$

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED DEC 14 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
ISLAND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER DRY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
A RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS MOVES STEADILY SOUTH. THE APPROACH OF
THE RIDGE MEANS THAT THE TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...THEN
DISAPPEAR ALTOGETHER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE APPROACH...AND EVENTUAL PASSAGE...OF THE
FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR TONIGHT...OTHER THAN A FEW
MORE CLOUDS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER AND NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU.
SHOWERS ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED FROM THE INCREASED STABLE LOW CLOUDS
AND LAND BREEZES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS AS
THE NIGHT WEARS ON...ALLOWING SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS TO CLEAR LATER.

ONE FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE WINDS AT THE SUMMITS
OF MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA...WHICH APPEAR TO BE TRENDING BACK UP
AFTER DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 30 TO 40 MPH THROUGH
MID-DAY TOMORROW...SO THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS
WILL BE RE-ISSUED SHORTLY. THE STRONG WINDS ARE A RESULT OF A STRONG
GRADIENT ALOFT BETWEEN A MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS AND AN RIDGE ALOFT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND THE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH TOMORROW...
WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE EVENTUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AT THE
SUMMITS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THEREFORE...A FORECAST UPDATE COMING OUT SHORTLY WILL INCLUDE MORE
CLOUD COVER OVER KAUAI AND OAHU THIS EVENING...AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS THROUGH 2 PM THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WHICH IS APPENDED BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNUSUALLY CLEAR AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS OVER MOST OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND THE RAIN GAUGES CONTINUE TO BE BONE DRY. THE
00Z SOUNDINGS TELL THE STORY...WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 4000 FT AT LIHUE SLOPING TO 6000 FT AT
HILO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
ISLANDS. THE MID-LEVEL AIR IS STILL COLDER THAN NORMAL THANKS TO THE
UPPER TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...BUT THIS IS OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...TO BE OVER THE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...AND SOUTH OF THE STATE
ON SATURDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A WEAK CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT BACKGROUND FLOW
AND CLEAR SKIES...NIGHTS WILL BE QUITE COOL. BY SATURDAY WE WILL
START TO TRANSITION TO INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT.

OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES ON
SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...AND THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER. THE MODELS ARE NOT
SHOWING A LOT OF CONVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT IS LACKING. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP OVER THE
NORTHERN OR CENTRAL ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND DISSIPATE
AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WE HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT
ON THE POPS SLIGHTLY WITH THIS FRONT A BIT.

THE 18Z RUN OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING OF A
LOW...TO NEAR 947 MB...TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII AROUND 40N 150W SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WAS STRONG ENOUGH AND CLOSE ENOUGH TO SHOW 30 KT
WESTERLIES ENTERING THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR DOMAIN. THIS DID NOT
AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MODEL...AND WAS MUCH DEEPER THAN
THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOWED. AFTER COORDINATING WITH HPC...WE
BELIEVE THE OPERATIONAL GFS WAS OVERDONE...AND HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE KONA WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS EXPECTED...AND WE WILL ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING.

AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL
SEND NORTHWEST SWELLS TO THE ISLANDS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A LOT OF TROUBLE RESOLVING THE MASS FIELDS
AROUND THE SYSTEMS...AND THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN
THE WAVEWATCH III OUTPUT. THE 18Z RUN SHOWS 21 FEET SWELL WITH
PERIOD 16 SECONDS NEAR THE NORTH SHORE OF OAHU FOR MONDAY NIGHT...
BUT WE BELIEVE THIS IS OVERDONE.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY BIG ISLAND SUMMITS THROUGH 2 PM THURSDAY.

&&

BIRCHARD/R BALLARD