Wind Advisory 9, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 020252
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
952 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

.A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

NCZ033-049-050-021000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-051202T1700Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
952 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST FRIDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST FRIDAY. 

WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
THE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ON PEAKS...NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES...
AND NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED VALLEYS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH
ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. A FEW
TREES AND POWER LINES WILL LIKELY FALL AS WELL.

$$

NCZ048-052-053-064-065-021000-
/O.CON.KGSP.LW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-051202T1700Z/
MADISON-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
952 PM EST THU DEC 1 2005

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST FRIDAY...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST FRIDAY. 

WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 45 MPH ON PEAKS AND NORTHWEST
FACING SLOPES.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$
RB

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 020820
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2005

NCZ033-049-050-021700-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-051202T1700Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
320 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2005

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. 

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THE STRONGER
GUSTS WILL BE ON PEAKS...NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES... AND NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED VALLEYS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH
ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. A FEW
TREES AND POWER LINES WILL LIKELY FALL AS WELL.

$$

NCZ048-052-053-064-065-021700-
/O.CON.KGSP.LW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-051202T1700Z/
MADISON-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
320 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2005

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. GUSTS MAY
OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 45 MPH ON PEAKS AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$
MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1012 AM EST THU DEC 1 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
STRATOCU RESULTING FROM H9 ESE FLOW/UPGLIDE IS STUBBORNLY HOLDING IN
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...AND HAS ACTUALLY EXPANDED A
BIT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH KCLT NOW REPORTING BKN013. THIS
SHOULD ERODE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BE HINDERED SUFFICIENTLY
TO WARRANT A CATEGORY DECREASE IN MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT.

STRONG SW TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RAPIDLY
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE TENN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE
MODELS REMAIN STINGY WITH QPF ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS SCANT...AND BETTER FORCING (DPVA) PASSES
NORTH OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER...AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT RADAR ECHOES
PASSING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY DID NOT
APPEAR TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MIDDLE TENN...
BUT COULD DO SO AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WNC. FOR
NOW...WILL INCREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE TENN BORDER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 312 AM EST THU DEC 1 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT RANGE...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS THINKING. MODELS STILL AGREE ON TAKING SHORT
WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MID MS VALLEY MORE OR LESS
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY WITH THE BEST FORCING MISSING US TO THE
NORTH. MOISTURE STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO MID LEVELS AS THE
WAVE PASSES. WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT IS NOT UNTIL THE MOUNTAINS GET INTO THE
NW FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE THAT THERE WILL BE AN APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF
PRECIP...AND MODELS SUGGEST ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE TN BORDER AT
THAT. MOISTURE/NW FLOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD END BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY. NOT MANY CHANGES MADE IN THE FIRST FEW PERIODS.

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME NEARLY ZONAL ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS
LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.

BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST GETS MORE INTERESTING AS WEAK
UPPER ENERGY MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND WARM
ADVECTION/MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET IS KEY...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING
IT MIGHT BE EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER FAR WRN NC. WITH VERY DRY AIR
AT LOW LEVELS TO BE OVERCOME...BEFORE NOON MIGHT BE A BETTER BET
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
ABOUT PARTIAL THICKNESSES...WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING IF THE TIMING IS GOOD...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS/NRN FOOTHILLS. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD POP
TO THE CHANCE RANGE IN THE MORNING THERE...BUT WILL TREND THE PRECIP
TYPE TOWARD A COMBINATION OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET OWING TO LOW WET BULB
TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WARM NOSE TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW 3
DEGREES C. BY AFTERNOON THOUGH...WARM ADVECTION SHOULD TAKE OVER AND
THINK NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL BE ALL LIQUID IN SPITE OF LOW
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGESTING FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. IT JUST DOES
NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH ANYWHERE NEAR THE SURFACE...EVEN IF MET
GUIDANCE IS RIGHT...TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF FREEZING/FROZEN
PRECIP. HIGH TEMP SATURDAY IS REALLY PROBLEMATIC. ASSUMING PRECIP
STARTS IN THE AFTERNOON...THE DEPARTING HIGH ALONG THE NC COAST IS
SUGGESTIVE OF AN IN-SITU WEDGE. WILL TREND IN THIS DIRECTION...WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY MET GUIDANCE...AND WILL LOWER TEMPS ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT BY A CATEGORY OR SO.

WARMUP SHOULD CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
A WAVE MOVING PAST...WHICH IS A MODEL CONSENSUS. WILL TREND HIGHER
ON THE POP...INTO THE LIKELY RANGE...WITH PTYPE ALL RAIN.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ZONAL UPPER REPLACED BY PROGRESSIVE/AMPLIFYING TROUGH SUN/MON...
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW TUE/WED. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES AREA FROM NW SUN...WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SHOWERS
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING ALONG TN
BORDER...BEFORE ENDING AS RAIN SHOWERS MON AFTERNOON. DRY SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OVER AREA TUE/WED. WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF FRONT SUN
REPLACED BY COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND FRONT MON-WED.

AVIATION...
NEAR TERM CONCERN FOR THE 06 UTC TAF PACKAGE LIMITED TO DEVELOPING
STRATOCU CIGS SPREADING WWD INTO THE NC PIEDMONT DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS...PERHAPS RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF VFR LVL STRATOCU CIGS
AT KCLT. ALSO ADDED TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR FOG AT KAND...WHERE DEW
POINT DEPRESSION ALREADY LOW IN MOIST AXIS ALONG SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY...AND WIND CALM.

LATER TODAY...NON-MTN TAF WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SW ABT 10
KTS AHEAD OF APPROACHING S/WV WITH VARIABLE VFR LVL CU/AC UNTIL
ABOUT MID AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. CONCERNS FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD ARE MAINLY FOR
KAVL AS UPSLOPE STRATOCU WORKS UP FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND
GUSTY NNW WINDS DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LANE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 AM EST THU DEC 1 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-021115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
602 AM EST THU DEC 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...
DEPENDING ON THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FALL. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW
QUICKLY MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE
DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ENOUGH LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET WILL FALL TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AT ANY RATE...IT APPEARS THAT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS RAIN FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY ONWARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MOORE