Severe Thunderstorm Warning 345, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

.SHORT TERM...
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE FRONT STILL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.  MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.  ALTHOUGH SPC HAS DROPPED THE
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
THAT SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WHERE A VORT MAX WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS.  MODELS ARE
INDICATING BEST MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST OF A COLUMBUS TO
MACON TO ATHENS LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.  BELIEVE ANY THREAT OF SEVERE WILL
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF SUNSHINE THIS EVENING. EXPECT SURFACE FRONT
TO APPROACH NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND
MODELS INDICATING FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS ARE INDICATING LITTLE TO
NO DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  ALTHOUGH FRONT
WILL BE DIMINISHING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER NORTH FLORIDA BY MONDAY AND INTO
THE GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL ROTATE OVER THE TOP OF RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  FOR THE
MOST PART CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

&&
.AVIATION...
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT IN TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN GEORGIA EARLY SATURDAY.  AHEAD OF FRONT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEAT OF DAY.  HIGH HUMIDITY
AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EVENING SHOWERS SHOULD SET STAGE FOR BRIEF
PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING LOW STATUS AND FOG.  AFTERNOON CONVECTION
SHOULD DELELOP FARTHER EAST ON SATURDAY...GENERALLY FROM VICINITY OF
ATHENS AND ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF GEORGIA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA         73  89  71  88 /  30  30  20  40
ATHENS          72  91  70  88 /  30  40  20  40
GAINESVILLE     72  89  70  84 /  30  30  20  40
ROME            72  93  69  93 /  30  20  20  40
COLUMBUS        75  94  75  91 /  30  30  20  40
MACON           74  94  74  93 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

&&

12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
507 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

GAZ034-047-012130-

507 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS
IN WALTON AND GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 502 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SNELLVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM LOGANVILLE AND
MONROE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
513 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

GAZ055-057-012145-

513 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL...40 TO 50 MPH WINDS
IN HENRY AND CLAYTON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 507 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CONLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLLEGE PARK
AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE RIVERDALE AREA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
514 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

GAZ066-012145-

514 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND 1/2 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL FOR TROUP COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 512 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LOUISE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN TROUP COUNTY.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL RADIO AND TELEVISION
FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
517 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

GAZ038-012145-

517 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS
IN OGLETHORPE COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 512 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SMITHSONIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
THIS STRONGEST PART OF THIS STORM WILL AFFECT SMITHSONIA AND SANDY
CROSS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
525 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

GAZ037-050-012215-

525 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS
IN GREENE AND OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 523 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER FARMINGTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT BISHOP...FARMINGTON...WRAYSWWOOD AND
GRESHAMVILLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
527 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

GAZ054-012215-

527 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS
IN FAYETTE COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 523 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF TYRONE...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT TYRONE...PEACHTREE CITY AND
FAYETTEVILLE.