Severe Thunderstorm Warning 320, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

.SHORT TERM...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE
OVER THE AREA HAVE DIMINISHED. LOOKS LIKE A SUMMER TIME PATTERN IS
SETTING UP FOR GEORGIA FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO 90S.
OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE A RATHER STORMY AND WET WEEK.
THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LOW THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT
NOW ACROSS THE MID WESTERN STATES MOVES INTO N GA BY WED AND STALLS
AS IT AS IT COMES UP AGAINST THE BUILDING BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE. MODELS
SHOWING A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING NE THROUGH THE
AREA OUT OF THE GULF ALL WEEK. THESE WEAK WAVES WILL PROVIDE GOOD
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WHICH WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH
FRI. THE STALLED FRONT WILL ALSO BE A GOOD FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF YESTERDAYS STORMS ARE ANY
INDICATION AS TO WHAT WE CAN EXPECT TODAY AND THROUGH WED WILL HAVE
TO EMPHASIZE THE THREAT OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND FLOODING DUE TO
HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...BUT IT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SHUT OFF
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ATLANTIC RIDGE ALSO BUILDS INTO THE
AREA THU/FRI KEEPING CONVECTION ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VSBY RESTRICTIONS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AND SEVERE AS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. 7-10SM LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AT KATL. SOME
LIGHT WEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP DEW POINT DEPRESSION FROM DROPPING TOO
MUCH. OTHER TYPICAL SITES THAT SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG
CURRENTLY RANGE BETWEEN 1-3SM. SCT TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER 19Z. NOT ENOUGH COVERGE EXPECTED FOR TEMPO OR PREVAILING PROBS
SO HAVE LIMITED TO PROB30. PROGGD INSTABILITY NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS
YESTERDAY WITH CAPE VALUES 1000-1500 EXPECTED BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
FAIRLY MOIST ALL THE WAY TO THE TROP.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA         86  70  85  67 /  40  30  40  30
ATHENS          87  67  87  67 /  40  30  40  30
GAINESVILLE     87  67  85  65 /  40  30  40  30
ROME            90  68  85  68 /  40  30  40  30
COLUMBUS        89  71  87  70 /  40  30  40  30
MACON           90  70  89  67 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1154 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-CRAWFORD-
CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-FANNIN-FAYETTE-
FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-
HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-
OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-
SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-
TELFAIR-TOOMBS-TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-
WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1154 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT
MIDDAY MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING. HOWEVER ISOLATED
STORMS MAY PRODUCE MICROBURST WITH LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THE
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE MICROBURST WITH
WIND GUST TO 60 MPH. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO PEA
SIZE. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
MAXIMUM RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN PLACES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS AND BE
CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.