Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 280400
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1056 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005

TXC453-491-280615-
WILLIAMSON TX-TRAVIS TX-
1056 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 115 AM CDT FOR TRAVIS AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...

AT 1054 PM CDT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS 
OF SOUTH AUSTIN.  THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL OVER AREAS 
WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED MORE THAN TWO INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE 
PAST FEW HOURS.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE REACHED ABOVE THREE 
INCHES NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF BEN WHITE AND I-35. ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.



LAT...LON 3041 9732 3042 9738 3021 9749 3003 9772
      3035 9816 3048 9810 3050 9811 3050 9812
      3074 9799 3091 9784 3089 9767 3075 9729
      3048 9716

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1008 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005

.UPDATE...
TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS PICKED UP THIS EVENING AS MOST OF THE
HEATING BASED CELLS DIED OUT. FRONTAL ZONE HAS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREAS WHERE TRAINING HAS OCCURED AND IS GENERALLY ALONG A DRT
TO GTU LINE. EVENING MODEL DATA SUGGESTS RAIN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS FARTHER WEST WITH TIME...SO FEEL A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
UNWARRANTED FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS FLOODING
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY WHERE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE COLLECTING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO...SOME OF WHICH IS HITTING THE PREVIOUSLY HARD HIT AREAS
IN THE PATH OF EMILY. EXPECT SOME RISES IN THE RIO GRANDE IN THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

MODELS SHOW ADDTIONAL FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TOMORROW...SO THE EARLY
MORNING SHIFT MAY NEED TO REVIEW THE THREAT BASED ON WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO COVER A MORE BROAD AREA OF 40-60
PERCENT CHANCES. HIGHEST CHANCES WERE PLACED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY...AND
WILL WATCH CLOSELY IN CASE A FFA IS NEEDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GENERAL RADAR TRENDS ARE ON THE DECREASE...SO WILL LET SHORT FUSE PRODUCTS
HANDLE THE SITUATION. TEMPS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005/

DISCUSSION...
BRING OUT YOUR UMBRELLAS. POPS ARE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO OUR CWFA AND STALLS-OUT.
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT A PREFRONTAL WIND
SHIFT HAS WINDS OUT OF THE NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWFA
EWX. AT THE SAME TIME...A SEABREEZE IS PUSHING INLAND AND IS
FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THE PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT (TROUGH) LATER
THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS THESE TWO LOW LEVEL
FEATURES INTERACT. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF SAN
ANTONIO TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHERE A SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGEST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHCENTRAL TEXAS WILL
AVERAGE ONE HALF INCH...WITH SPOTTY AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY ALONG THE
STALLED-OUT FRONT. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW...BUT SHOULD BE
TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AS A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.

A TREND TOWARD CLIMO POPS AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND DOMINATES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE GFS(X) MOS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
THIS CYCLE...WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NECESSARY.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

25/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
130 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-281100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
130 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE THREAT AREA IS
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 16 FROM SAN ANTONIO TO TILDEN. A MOIST AIRMASS WITH INTERACT
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.
STEERING WINDS WILL BE WEAK RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING AND MERGING
STORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LOCALIZED 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.