Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 161747
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1245 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

TXC091-161755-
COMAL TX-
1245 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR COMAL COUNTY EXPIRES AT 1245 PM CDT...

THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND FLASH 
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. AS DAYTIME HEATING 
CONTINUES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY THREATEN 
TO PRODUCE MORE HEAVY RAINS OVER COMAL COUNTY.

LAT...LON 2963 9834 2967 9838 2974 9835 2973 9838
      2976 9842 2973 9844 2977 9855 2975 9862
      3002 9830 2985 9805 2978 9801 2970 9808
      2962 9829

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
934 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AND 12Z SOUNDING FROM DRT AND
CRP SUGGEST A CONTINUED WET PERIOD TODAY WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST WARNING COUNTY
AREA. WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INPLACE.

UPPER RIDGE IS PARKED OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AS SEEN BY
SATELLITE. ALSO INDICATED IS A UPPER LOW OVER THE CWA WITH MODERATE
LOWER LEVEL INFLOW OFF THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. 12Z SOUNDINGS HAVE PWS AROUND 2 INCHES WHICH WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

06Z MAV SUGGEST UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL GIVE THE REGION A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WILL ADJUST THE POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS...KICKING THEN UP A
CATEGORY. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PREV UPDATED DISCUSSION...
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE WATCH WILL BE ALONG AND EAST
OF A DILLEY TO DHANIS TO MOUNTAIN HOME LINE. 12Z SOUNDING DATA
SUGGEST STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AT 10 MPH OR LESS WITH
TRAINING OF CELLS LIKELY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. AREA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS SHOW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT WERE
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WERE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, MODERATE
LOWER LEVEL INFLOW, AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH CHANCE POPS WEST TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE.
PWS AROUND 2 INCHES SUGGEST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR NOW, WILL
HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND LET LATER SHIFTS CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS TO AN INVERTED TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A REPEAT OF ONGOING CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE AS SOME DRY AIR
BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO LOW. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, UPPER TROUGH
FURTHER TRANSITIONS TO SHEAR AXIS RESULTING IN MAINLY SEABREEZE
CONVECTION WITH SLIGHT POPS ONLY IN THE EAST. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY,
HURRICANE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. ONLY
MECHANISM THAT WOULD HAVE ALLOWED HER TO COME FURTHER NORTH WOULD
HAVE BEEN A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WOULD ENHANCE THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL INFLUENCE. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS. EMILY MOVES
FURTHER WEST INTO MEXICO MAINTAINING AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR FRIDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS. OVER THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES
WILL SHOW A SLIGHTLY LARGER TEMPERATURE RANGE THAN GUIDANCE
INDICATES BASED ON PERSISTENCE, THEN LATER PERIODS LOOK
REASONABLE, ALTHOUGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM EMILY.

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY
      FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ATASCOSA...BANDERA...
      BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE
      WITT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
      HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
      MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...AND WILSON.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
834 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-171100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
834 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS FOR MUCH OF TODAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN INTO SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM A NEARLY
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE EMILY ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AS EMILY TAKES AIM FOR
NORTHERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS FORECAST
COULD HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEATHER WITH
HEAVY RAINS...STRONG WINDS...AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. SOME MOISTURE
FROM EMILY COULD SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE NEXT WEEK ONCE
LANDFALL HAS OCCURRED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.