Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 262050
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
350 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

TXC029-262315-
BEXAR TX-
350 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR BEXAR
COUNTY...

AT 350 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED 
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE 
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF SAN ANTONIO. THE AREA OF FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS 
HIGHEST INSIDE LOOP 1604 EXTENDING NORTH TO I-35 WEST OF SAN ANTONIO 
AND EXTENDING NORTH TO I-10 EAST OF SAN ANTONIO.

RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGESTS AROUND 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN 
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 37 AND SOUTHEAST 
MILITARY DRIVE. WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST AT 5 MPH 
OVER THIS AREA...AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER 
SOUTHEASTERN SAN ANTONIO BY THE TIME THE HEAVY RAINS END.

FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR 
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED AREAS. A LITTLE
OVER A FOOT OF WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST CARS AND TRUCKS. TURN AROUND
DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 2925 9880 2969 9881 2972 9878 2976 9855
      2971 9844 2975 9842 2973 9836 2973 9835
      2971 9838 2962 9836 2956 9826 2957 9826
      2950 9819 2948 9813 2911 9842

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
259 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MCV SPINNING OVR THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING
ALONG AND EAST OF THE RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY...WITH A SECOND E-W BOUNDARY NEAR I10
FROM THE ONGOING SE TX CONVECTION INTERSECTING NEAR SAT.   WILL LIKELY SEE
CONVECTION LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS(EAST) WITH MORE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN THREAT AS STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING.  AT THIS POINT DO NOT FEEL
CONVECTION WILL BE ORGANIZED ENUF FOR A FFA BUT WILL MENTION THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN OVR THE EAST HALF OF CWA THIS EVENING.  MODELS NOT VERY CONSISTENT IN
COVERAGE OR TIMING FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND AND GIVEN THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH CHC POPS THRU THE WEEKEND INTO
MEMORIAL DAY.  HOWEVER...OF SOME CONCERN IS THE SLOW MOVING OPEN WAVE THAT THE
GFS AND THE INCOMING ECMWF LIFT ENEWD FROM SW TX ACRS CNTRL/NE TX LATE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY.  THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN LARGE SLOW MOVG MCS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS MOSTLY LIKELY OVER THE NRN CWA.  WILL GO WITH GOOD
CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WEST AND REMAINDER OF AREA SUNDAY AND WATCH FOR
SOME CONTINUED RUN-TO-RUN/MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

BEYOND MEMORIAL DAY AM INCLINED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS OR GENERALLY DRY
AS MAIN CONSENSUS IS TO BUILD A RIDGE INTO WEST TX AS THE TROF MOVS EAST AND
THIS IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...BUT MAY TAKE A PEAK A THE 12Z ECMWF
TO SEE IF IT IS IN AGREEMENT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              68  87  69  85 /  50  40  40  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  86  66  85 /  50  40  40  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  81  70  88 /  20  40  40  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  86  69  85 /  50  40  40  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

01/18

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1209 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

TXZ183-261725-
VAL VERDE-
1209 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA AND THEREFORE THE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY BUT NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1259 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

TXZ184>187-202>205-217>222-228-261811-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BEXAR-DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FRIO-KARNES-KERR-KINNEY-
MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-UVALDE-WILSON-ZAVALA-
1259 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 336 IS CANCELLED...

THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED AND THE
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.